SPC AC 141544
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1044 AM CDT SAT MAY 14 2005
   
   VALID 141630Z - 151200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BUF
   SYR MSV 20 ESE ABE ILG 45 ESE LYH DAN 25 SW HSV 10 WNW UOX DYR OWB
   DAY 25 W CLE.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW
   P07 20 ENE MRF GDP 35 NE ALM 45 NNW ROW HOB 40 SE MAF 70 SW SJT 30
   NW DRT.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E DUG 55 NNW SVC
   50 ENE SOW 35 NNE INW 25 N PRC IGM 40 SSW U31 35 WSW WMC 45 E SVE 15
   W RNO 70 NNW BIH 40 WNW BIH 45 NNE FAT 35 NNE MER 55 SE RBL 50 W RBL
   30 ESE CEC 30 NE OTH 40 W PDX 45 NNE PDX 40 SE SEA 35 S 4OM 50 NW
   63S ...CONT... 55 NW HVR 40 ENE LWT 45 W GCC 35 SW DGW 40 ENE CYS 50
   ESE LIC 45 N GCK 20 N DDC 30 S DDC 40 SW LBL 15 SSW AMA 30 NE CVS 50
   SSE CVS 40 NNE BGS 40 SW ABI 25 E BWD 40 SE DAL 55 NW LIT 40 SW PAH
   10 SSE BMG 10 NNE AZO 35 SSE LNR 45 SSW LSE 35 NW LSE 15 S CWA 10
   SSE OSC ...CONT... 25 ENE EFK 20 ENE PWM.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW PIE 45 NW AGR
   25 SSW AGR 45 WSW PBI 10 SE MIA.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S SSI 30 NNE AYS
   50 SE MCN 40 SSW MCN 10 WNW ABY 25 E MAI 10 ESE AQQ.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY INTO
   NY/PA...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TX AND
   SOUTHEAST NM...
   
   ...OH VALLEY INTO NY/PA/VA...
   MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER
   MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH BAND OF MODERATELY
   STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS EXTENDING FROM MO/AR INTO
   NY/PA. PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM EASTERN
   LOWER MI INTO WESTERN KY AND CENTRAL AR.  AIR MASS ALONG AND AHEAD
   OF FRONT IS MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. 
   HOWEVER...SEVERAL AREAS OF MORNING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL
   LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS MUCH OF IND/OH/WESTERN KY.
    ZONE OF BEST HEATING APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM MIDDLE TN/NORTHERN AL
   ACROSS EASTERN KY AND WV.  REFER TO MCD NUMBER 874 FOR FURTHER
   DETAILS.  PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL INTENSIFY
   BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL KY/TN AND SPREAD
   NORTHEASTWARD INTO WV/WESTERN PA.  AIRMASS EAST OF MOUNTAINS IS ALSO
   DESTABILIZING RAPIDLY...SUGGESTING THAT STORMS MAY MAINTAIN
   INTENSITY INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN VA AND CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING
   BEFORE WEAKENING.  DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.
   
   ...SWRN TX/SERN NM...
   SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS TX...MOVING
   INTO THE PECOS VALLEY. RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
   WINDS WILL PERSIST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TODAY...PROVIDING
   MOIST/UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE DAVIS MTNS AND SOUTHEAST NM.  MORNING
   LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING
   AIR MASS TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND ONLY WEAKLY CAPPED. 
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
   LATER TODAY AND SPREAD INTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS.  WEAK UPPER
   RIDGING MAY TEND TO LIMIT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. 
   HOWEVER...EASTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PROVIDE
   SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS
   CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ...LA/MS...
   REMNANT MCV FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION OVER NORTH TX IS CURRENTLY
   NEAR TYR.  THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MOIST AND
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS LA/MS.  WIND FIELDS ARE
   PROGD TO BE RATHER WEAK...TENDING TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. 
   HOWEVER...ENHANCED LIFT AND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX MAY
   RESULT IN A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TODAY FROM CENTRAL LA INTO
   CENTRAL MS.
   
   ...WI/MI...
   POWERFUL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER MN IS FORECAST TO ROTATE EASTWARD
   ACROSS WI AND LOWER MI TODAY.  STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL
   ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH ENHANCED UVVS.  AIRMASS IS RATHER
   COOL/DRY ACROSS WI/LM. HOWEVER...COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
   STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY RESULT IN A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
   LEADING EDGE OF UVVS.  ANY DEEP CONVECTION IN THIS REGION COULD
   PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ..HART/JEWELL.. 05/14/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z