May 15, 2005 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Updated: Sun May 15 05:40:23 UTC 2005
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SPC AC 150537 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1237 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2005 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE CHS 35 SE AGS 40 SSE AHN 40 NW AHN 25 WSW HKY 20 SW LYH 20 E CHO BWI 10 WSW PHL 20 ESE NEL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W ELP 20 E TCS 25 ESE ABQ 35 ENE ALS COS 20 E LIC 35 WSW GLD 40 NE CAO 50 ENE CVS 50 N MAF 65 SSE MAF 35 ESE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N OLF 40 WNW GDV 35 E 4BQ 10 NW RAP 35 NE PIR 20 NE FSD 25 N MWL 15 W TPL 40 N HOU 15 WNW BTR 15 ESE BLF 20 WSW ABE 15 W PSF 50 NNE PBG ...CONT... 55 NW 3B1 40 NW EPM ...CONT... 50 E DUG 50 E SOW 70 N INW P38 20 E FAT 45 SE RBL MFR 25 NNW DLS 55 NW 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... A STRONG JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX NOW OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH BASE OF ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OH VALLEY SUNDAY...THEN EJECT ENEWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NERN STATES SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR THE NRN PORTIONS OF A COLD FRONT NOW FROM THE OH VALLEY SWWD THROUGH THE TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS TO CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS SUNDAY...THEN OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER AZ WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. A STALLED BOUNDARY WILL PERSIST FROM S TX WWD THROUGH ERN NM. ...CAROLINAS THROUGH MID ATLANTIC... STRONGER FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NWD OF CNTRL VA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER HEIGHT GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH OH VALLEY UPPER TROUGH. THE 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL RANGE FROM GENERALLY 30-40 KT...BUT MAY INCREASE FURTHER AS THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MODEST LAPSE RATES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S. SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY LINGER FROM ONGOING STORMS...BUT POCKETS OF SURFACE HEATING ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP AND INTENSIFY DURING THE DAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FROM VA SWD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY MULTICELL LINES WITH SOME SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ...CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD VEER TO SELY N OF STALLED FRONT FROM SWRN TX THROUGH ERN NM AND CO AS CNTRL PLAINS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN LOWER 50S DEWPOINTS OVER ERN NM AND 40S OVER ERN CO. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER AZ WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO NM AND W TX TODAY. ANY ONGOING CONVECTION AND INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING IMPULSE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR MORE CLOUDS FROM PARTS OF ERN NM INTO W TX EARLY SUNDAY. THIS MAY LIMIT OR DELAY DESTABILIZATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CLUSTERS OF STORMS OVER ERN NM WILL CONTINUE ESEWD INTO W TX WITHIN REGIME OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION N OF STALLED FRONT. POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE HEATING SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF MORNING STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM AS DRY SLOT APPROACHES. AN AXIS OF MLCAPE FROM 1500 J/KG OVER CNTRL/ERN NM TO AOB 1000 J/KG OVER ERN CO IS EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON. MAGNITUDE OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WILL NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERING TO NWLY WITH HEIGHT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT SPREADS EAST INTO LESSER INSTABILITY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF W TX AND KS DURING THE EVENING. ..DIAL/CROSBY.. 05/15/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z |