SPC AC 301258
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0758 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2005
   
   VALID 301300Z - 311200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE
   MAF CNM LVS 15 S COS LIC 40 W GLD GLD 15 NE GCK 45 NNW GAG 30 NW ABI
   40 SE BGS 25 SSE MAF.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DPG
   SLC 20 SSE EVW 50 WNW CAG 50 W EGE MTJ 35 NNW CEZ 10 N U17 10 E BCE
   10 E MLF 25 W U24 DPG.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW
   DAB 25 SSE CTY ...CONT... 40 WSW GLS 45 SW LFK 35 NW POE 40 SSW JAN
   TOI 35 NE ABY 25 S SAV.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 NW FCA 30 SE 3DU
   35 NNW WRL 30 SW CDR 30 SSE HSI 45 SW OJC 45 ESE TBN 25 E MDH 30 NNE
   DNV 45 NNE ALO 15 NNW AXN 65 NNE ISN ...CONT... 65 S MRF 50 ESE ALM
   10 SW ABQ 30 SSW CEZ 20 WSW BCE 30 NW ELY 30 WNW TWF 55 N BOI 40 S
   BKE 80 S BNO 60 ENE SVE 40 ENE RBL 40 SW MHS 40 ENE BLI ...CONT...
   45 WNW 3B1 20 NE PWM.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE ELO 50 ESE DLH
   RHI 45 SE ESC 10 W ANJ.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF UT/CO...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH
   PLAINS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL
   STATES...
   
   ...CNTRL AND ERN GULF COASTAL STATES...
   PREFER FASTER GFS SOLUTION OF LOWER AND MID LEVEL CYCLONE
   ... CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER ERN TX...MOVING EWD INTO MS BY THE END OF
   THE PERIOD. EVOLUTION OF SEVERE THREAT AND COVERAGE IS COMPLICATED
   BY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THAT COVERS MUCH OF THE NRN AND WRN GULF
   THIS MORNING. EXPECT CONVECTION CLUSTER...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
   SRN MS/SERN LA..TO MOVE EWD TROUGH THE CENTRAL/ERN GULF COASTAL
   REGION WITHIN ZONE OF STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT
   30-40 KT SHOULD MAINTAIN STORM ORGANIZATION. BIGGEST CONCERN IS
   DENSE CLOUD CANOPY THAT COVERS AREA FROM GULF OF MEXICO CONVECTION.
   HOWEVER...LIGHTNING WITH CONVECTION SOUTH OF AL/FL PANHANDLE HAS
   DECREASED DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO. LOW END SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
   EXISTS FROM SERN LA/SRN MS THIS MORNING...BUT WILL INCREASE ACROSS
   SWRN AL/FL PANHANDLE AS WEAKENING CONVECTION/ THINNING CLOUDS ALLOWS
   TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. THIS WILL ENHANCE
   THE BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY WITH WIND DAMAGE THE MAIN THREAT AS
   LINE MOVES EWD. THE THREAT MAY EXTEND ALONG AND SOUTH OF FRONTAL
   ZONE THAT EXTENDS EWD INTO SRN GA WHERE MORE HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR
   STRONGER INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ELEVATED STORMS WITH
   HAIL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SERN TX/SRN LA AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFT EWD.
   
   ...UT/WRN CO...
   AS A SMALL...BUT VIGOROUS UPPER LOW...LOCATED NEAR THE UT/NV BORDER
   SWEEPS EWD TODAY...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KT AND STEEP MID LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS AND POSSIBLE ROTATION IN
   STORMS. THE MAIN THREAT THIS MORNING IN WRN UT WILL BE HAIL.
   HOWEVER..AS THE FORCING SHIFTS EWD...STRONG HEATING AHEAD OF THE
   SYSTEM WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS
   POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN UT/WRN CO.
   
   ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   ALTHOUGH UPPER LOW NEAR THE UT/NV BORDER IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT
   SHIFTS EWD...SHARP TROUGH ALOFT WITH IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM SERN
   WY SWD INTO CENTRAL NM BY 00Z. THOUGH STRONG LIFT IS FORECAST ACROSS
   SERN WY/NERN CO THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
   NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN A COOL MOIST NELY UPSLOPE FLOW AND
   CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS. THIS SHOULD INHIBIT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR
   SURFACE BASED STORMS. CLOUDS ALSO COVER SERN CO/ERN NM THIS
   MORNING...BUT A WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAKER UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD
   AID IN SOME SUNSHINE/HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. IF MLCAPES CAN REACH
   1500-2000 J/KG AS DEPICTED BY MODELS...THEN 30-40KT MID LEVEL WINDS
   AND STRONG VEERING IN THE LOWER 3 KM WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
   SUPERCELLS. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL
   INITIALLY...A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY
   ALSO SUPPORT TORNADOES.  THE STORM DOWNDRAFTS ARE EXPECTED TO
   CONGEAL INTO AN MCS AND POSSIBLY DEVELOP A COLD POOL THIS
   EVENING...WITH WIND BECOMING THE MAIN THREAT IN EXTREME SWRN KS AND
   THE TX/OK PANHANDLES.
   
   ...ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION...
   AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN COLD TEMPERATURES
   ALOFT...ESPECIALLY FROM ACROSS NRN VA NEWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND.  AT
   THE SFC...A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE AREA THIS
   AFTERNOON AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE FOR A FEW
   THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK DUE TO A RELATIVELY DRY
   BOUNDARY LAYER...THOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM AND
   INVERTED-V PROFILES MAY PROVIDE A FEW WIND/HAIL EVENTS THIS
   AFTERNOON.
   
   ..IMY/CROSBIE.. 05/30/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z