SPC AC 010557
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1257 AM CDT WED JUN 01 2005
   
   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE
   CRP 30 ENE COT 25 N HDO 55 ENE JCT 45 WNW TPL 20 SE ACT 55 E CLL 30
   ENE GLS.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N
   PBI 25 SSE FMY ...CONT... 20 W CTY 10 E JAX.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W
   RRT 25 ENE FAR 10 SSW ATY 65 W YKN 25 N LBF 40 NNW IML 20 WSW SNY 50
   W BFF 55 NNE DGW 30 ESE 4BQ 60 NNW ISN.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW P07 15 NE GDP
   LVS 30 SW RTN 35 WNW TAD 45 WSW PUB 20 ESE MTJ 25 WNW 4HV 35 NE P38
   65 E TPH 35 N U31 30 WNW EKO 55 NNW ENV 60 S BYI 20 SW BYI 30 WSW
   TWF 60 NW OWY 20 SE BNO 30 SE RDM 25 N RDM 20 SSE EAT 35 NE 4OM
   ...CONT... 35 ENE ELO 60 SW IWD 25 W VOK 20 E RFD 15 SSW BEH 20 SE
   TOL 20 SW MFD 35 WNW UNI 55 WNW HTS 30 N LEX 15 SSW SDF 45 SW OWB 35
   NNE DYR 25 SSE MKL 30 NNW MSL 40 W CHA 25 NE SPA 30 S DAN 35 NE RWI
   20 ESE ECG ...CONT... 20 NW EFK 10 ENE LEB 25 NE BAF 10 N BDR 20 S
   TTN 30 WNW ILG 25 N HGR 20 ESE YNG 55 N ERI.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN
   PLAINS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX COASTAL
   PLAINS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF FL...
   
   ...NRN PLAINS...
   AN UPPER-LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED IN WRN ND WILL MOVE NWD INTO SRN
   CANADA TODAY AS ANOTHER UPPER-LOW SLIDES EWD INTO MT. AT THE SFC...A
   FRONT WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS BY AFTERNOON PROVIDING A
   FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN IN
   PLACE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MODERATE
   INSTABILITY LIKELY IN PLACE BY MID-AFTERNOON. SCATTERED STORMS
   SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE REGION
   DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS NEAR THE BOUNDARY AT 21Z SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 45 TO
   55 KT SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY. LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT
   SPREADS AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH-BASED
   SUPERCELLS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. THE
   SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS
   THE CNTRL AND ERN DAKOTAS. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE EWD WITH THE
   SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE
   REGION.
   
   ...TX COASTAL PLAINS...
   AN MCS CURRENTLY IN CNTRL TX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD REACHING THE
   TX COASTAL PLAIN AROUND DAYBREAK. A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL
   THREAT SHOULD EXIST WITH THE LINE BEFORE THE LINE MOVES OFFSHORE IN
   THE MORNING. BEHIND THE LINE...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S F SHOULD
   ALLOW THE AIRMASS TO RECOVER WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY LIKELY
   DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL
   BE WEAK...A FEW STORMS COULD INITIATE AND TRACK SEWD TOWARD THE
   COAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS ON THE TX COASTAL PLAIN BY 21Z SHOW MODERATE DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR IN PLACE SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE
   HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. THE
   SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED NEAR PEAK HEATING.
   
   ...FL...
   A BROAD UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE SERN US AND GULF OF MEXICO WILL
   CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD TOWARD THE FL PENINSULA TODAY. THIS WILL
   INCREASE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION...SUPPORTING SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS
   FL BY 21Z SHOW SBCAPES IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE WITH VERTICAL
   SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 KT. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE TOO LOW FOR
   SUPERCELLS...THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR SEVERE
   MULTICELL STORMS. WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT CONSIDERING
   WIND PROFILES WILL REMAIN UNIDIRECTIONAL. ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
   BE CONCENTRATED IN THE AFTERNOON CLOSE TO PEAK HEATING.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/01/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z