Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic

   SPC AC 100544
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1244 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005
   
   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW
   DHT CAO 45 SE LAA GCK 10 SE P28 FSI 35 NW ABI 60 SSE MAF MAF PVW 35
   SSW DHT.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW
   APN 40 S MBL 10 NNE BEH 10 SE HUF PAH 55 N HOT PGO DUA ABI SJT DRT
   ...CONT... 30 S P07 50 SW INK CNM CVS TCC RTN LHX 50 S GLD HLC OLU
   OTG AXN 35 SE BJI 15 ESE INL.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE
   HUL BGR AUG 35 NE BML 50 WNW 3B1.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 S MRF 35 WNW CNM
   20 NNE ROW 40 NW ONM 20 W GUP 25 SE 4HV 10 E MLF 70 SE BIH 25 SW TVL
   35 S MHS 25 NNE MFR 45 ESE EUG 35 SW DLS 15 WNW YKM 25 NNW EAT 30 NW
   4OM ...CONT... 40 WSW 7R4 40 NNW POE 35 SSW TXK 40 SSE PRX 30 ESE
   DAL 20 WNW ACT 60 WNW AUS 10 N HDO 15 SSW COT LRD ...CONT... 30 ESE
   BOS 20 ENE BDL POU 30 SW ABE 25 SSW ILG 20 E SBY.
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN/EVE ACROSS THE SRN
   HIGH PLAINS....
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK
   AREA ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MS
   VLY/GREAT LAKES REGION....
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN NEW
   ENGLAND....
   
   MODELS INDICATE UPPER RIDGE OFF THE MID/SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL
   AREAS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE
   UPSTREAM TROUGH BROADENS...ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND
   CENTRAL STATES BY 12Z SATURDAY.  INTENSE...GENERALLY ZONAL...UPPER
   JET PERSISTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC...WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
   EMANATING FROM THIS STREAM ALREADY RAPIDLY DIGGING TOWARD THE NORTH
   CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN TROUGHING ACROSS
   THE WESTERN STATES TODAY...WHILE PAIR OF DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE
   TROUGHS PROGRESS EAST OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS.
   
   NORTHERNMOST OF THESE FEATURES...INCLUDING WELL DEFINED MID-LEVEL
   CIRCULATION...IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN
   ROCKIES.  SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
   EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH CIRCULATION THEN REDEVELOPING INTO THE
   CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES...WHERE IT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
   SHEARED IN CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME.
   
   MEANWHILE...VIGOROUS SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE TROUGH...ALREADY TAKING ON
   INCREASING NEUTRAL TILT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU...IS FORECAST TO
   LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES IN NEGATIVELY TILTED FASHION...
   PERHAPS AS SOON AS THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.  MODELS SUGGEST SYSTEM
   WILL THEN CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
   LOWER/MID MISSOURI VALLEY LATER TODAY/TONIGHT.
   
   GIVEN MOIST...POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT EAST OF
   THE ROCKIES...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH EVOLVING PATTERN IS EXPECTED
   TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT  TODAY
   FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.  ADDITIONAL
   STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER
   RIDGE FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
   MEANWHILE...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MAY BE SOMEWHAT REDUCED ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE MID SOUTH AND GULF STATES...AHEAD OF TROPICAL SYSTEM
   TRACKING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
   
   ...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
   PRESENCE OF WEAKENING CONVECTION NEAR/NORTH OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY
   EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND POSSIBILITY OF UPPER FORCING AHEAD OF
   APPROACHING SHORT WAVE SPREADING EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY
   EARLY AFTERNOON...PROVIDE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO
   EXTENT/INTENSITY OF SEVERE THREAT. 
   
   IT CURRENTLY APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT STALLING FRONTAL ZONE FROM
   SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO COULD BECOME FOCUS FOR
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY.  DRY LINE TRAILING FROM FRONT
   ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH SOUTHWEST TEXAS WILL THEN BECOME
   INCREASINGLY ACTIVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  
   
   BY PEAK HEATING...THE MOST INTENSE STORMS ARE EXPECTED NEAR
   INTERSECTION OF DRY LINE AND OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE EASTERN
   TEXAS PANHANDLE.  THIS IS WHERE FORCING WILL BE ENHANCED BY STRONGLY
   DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT AHEAD OF BASE OF UPPER TROUGH AS IT LIFTS ACROSS
   THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE AGAIN LIKELY
   APPROACHING 4000 J/KG AHEAD OF DRY LINE ACROSS THIS REGION...SHEAR
   PROFILES WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS. THOUGH MODELS SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
   FLOW...A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE.
   
   ORGANIZING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS
   PARTS OF OKLAHOMA/KANSAS...ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF SURFACE COLD
   FRONT...AND SEVERE THREAT IN FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL MAY PERSIST
   INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
   
   ...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...
   WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE...OR PERHAPS REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...
   ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS MINNESOTA/IOWA/
   MISSOURI LIKELY WILL SUPPORT NEW/INTENSIFYING CONVECTION EASTWARD
   INTO WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS BY PEAK HEATING TODAY. MEANWHILE...
   UPSTREAM COLD FRONT COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR STORMS FROM
   WESTERN MINNESOTA/IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY LATE AFTERNOON. 
   GIVEN CONTINUING PRESENCE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...STRENGTHENING
   SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
   WINDS...PERHAPS SOME HAIL...IN STRONGER STORMS.
   
   ...MAINE...
   SHEAR PROFILES NEAR PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL/ 
   NORTHERN MAINE APPEAR LIKELY TO BECOME SUFFICIENT TO ENHANCE
   CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.  STORMS...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO
   DEVELOP...MAY BE PARTIALLY IN RESPONSE TO IMPULSE TOPPING CREST OF
   UPPER RIDGE OVER QUEBEC...AND A FEW MAY PRODUCE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS
   BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.
   
   ..KERR.. 06/10/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z