SPC AC 111650
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1150 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005
   
   VALID 111630Z - 121200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW
   FST 45 SSW CVS 55 SSE RTN 25 NNW CAO 25 NNW EHA LBL 40 NNE GAG 40
   WSW END 30 NE LTS 60 NNE ABI 30 N SJT 65 NE P07 20 NNW FST.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM P35 30
   N FOD 10 NNE RWF BRD 65 N IWD 15 ENE ESC MKE UIN 20 SW IRK P35.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 WNW
   CAR 35 W HUL BGR CON ALB ITH 15 NNE ROC.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW
   MOB 55 ESE GWO MSL RMG MCN 25 SSE GNV 10 SW SRQ.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW GLS 45 NNW HOU
   30 NE CLL 20 WSW TPL 40 NNW SAT 20 NW LRD ...CONT... 55 SSW MRF 30
   NNW GDP 30 NNE ALM 50 WSW SVC 10 SSW PHX 20 SSW IGM 35 NE BIH 25 WNW
   RNO 10 N 4LW 45 NW BNO 25 N PDT 55 NW 4OM ...CONT... 25 SW WAL 15
   WSW LYH 25 WNW TRI 25 NW TYS 40 E CHA 45 WNW AND 10 ENE CAE 40 ENE
   CHS.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   NORTHEASTERN U.S....
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS OF
   NM/TX...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
   STATES AND NWRN FL...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S WITH STRONG
   RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
   IN LIFTING MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE NEWD OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY
   REGION AS NEXT TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE
   CENTRAL/SRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.  MEANWHILE...T.S. ARLENE IS
   PROJECTED TO MOVE NWD INTO MOBILE BAY AND WRN AL THRU TONIGHT. SEE
   LATEST STATEMENTS AND ADVISORIES FROM THE TROPICAL PREDICTION
   CENTER.
   
   ...UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES...
   
   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LOCATED
   OVER N CENTRAL NEB AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NNEWD OVER THE RED RIVER
   VALLEY OF ND/WRN MN THROUGH TONIGHT.  SUFFICIENT HEATING IS
   OCCURRING OVER ERN MN INTO WI AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...AND WILL BE
   ACCOMPANIED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL MAKE ITS
   WAY INTO WRN WI.  AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE
   WITH MLCAPE REACHING BETWEEN 2000 AND 2500 J/KG.  MODELS ALSO SHOW
   MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION IN VICINITY OF FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF
   THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ENHANCING UVVS ACROSS THIS AREA. 
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS WITH SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES AROUND 8C/KM.  ALSO...DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE 30-35 KT INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF
   SUPERCELLS.
   
   ...SRN HIGH PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS...
   
   EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ARE SEVERAL CONVECTIVE
   BOUNDARIES THAT EXTEND FROM WRN MO AND NWRN AR INTO SRN OK AND WEST
   CENTRAL TX.  THIS IS THE RESULT OF ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STRONG
   THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCURRED THROUGH LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE TX
   PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL OK.  AMOUNT OF AIR MASS RECOVERY IS A CONCERN
   DURING THIS PERIOD.  THE NAM MODEL SEEMS TOO FAR EAST WITH THE
   RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF THE DRYLINE EXPECIALLY WITH THE APPROACHING
   TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.  THUS... DRYLINE TO
   RETROGRADE INTO ERN AREAS OF NEW MEXICO.  THE GFS HAS A BETTER IDEA
   ON THIS SCENARIO AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES TO 2500-3000 J/KG OF
   MLCAPE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST EAST OF THE DRYLINE IN
   THE VICINITY OF OLD CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES IN SERN/E CENTRAL NM AND W
   CENTRAL TX...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN ANOTHER MCS ACROSS WEST TEXAS
   INTO OK/NRN TX OVERNIGHT.
   
   ...NEW YORK STATE INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND...
   
   ONCE AGAIN SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED S OF QUASISTATIONARY
   BOUNDARY THRU SERN ONTARIO AND SRN QUEBEC.  THIS BOUNDARY IS LEFT IN
   THIS AREA DUE TO STRONG RIDGE/HIGHER GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS OVER THE
   EAST CENTRAL U.S.  THUS...STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
   OCCUR ONCE AGAIN FROM NERN OH ENEWD INTO ME AND COULD PRODUCE SOME
   HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ESPECIALLY WITH MERGING CELLS.
   
   ..MCCARTHY/TAYLOR.. 06/11/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z