Jun 17, 2005 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Updated: Fri Jun 17 05:50:31 UTC 2005
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SPC AC 170547 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1247 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2005 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE MOT 55 SSE Y22 50 SSW PHP 45 WSW MHN 20 W IML 15 ENE AKO 40 SE CYS 25 ENE CYS 55 NE DGW 30 NNW GCC 40 NE COD 50 SSE LVM 30 NNW HLN 25 NNW CTB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW GLS 20 NNW HOU 30 N CLL 10 NNE ACT 20 SW MWL 40 S SPS 45 E SPS 25 NNW PRX 30 SSE PGO 40 NNW HOT 30 NW LIT 35 E LIT 35 SSW GLH 30 NE MCB 10 ESE GPT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W RRT 55 WSW AXN 30 SSE FSD 15 NNE FNB 25 NE UNO 45 NNE MEI 35 SSW SEM 10 NW TOI 10 ESE LGC 25 W AHN 35 N CAE 25 SSW SOP 35 NNW RWI 35 ESE CHO 50 E MGW 10 WNW DUJ 35 ENE ART 25 ENE PBG ...CONT... 40 ENE PSX 30 NE AUS 65 NNE BGS 15 SW CVS 30 WNW RTN 20 WNW DGW 60 NNW CPR 25 SW EVW 45 E U31 50 E LOL 70 SSE BNO 45 WSW BNO 60 NE MFR 20 S CEC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MT INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN AND ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY A RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL U.S. FLANKED BY UPPER LOWS OVER THE WRN AND ERN STATES. HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE OVER THE CNTRL U.S. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NEWD INTO THE PLAINS. A SIGNIFICANT SPEED MAX NOW ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE NWRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES AND MT TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT. ..MT THROUGH THE WRN DAKOTAS... SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER CNTRL MT TODAY IN RESPONSE TO FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH NEWD EJECTING MID/UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NEWD THROUGH ERN MT AND INTO SRN CANADA DURING THE AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH THE STATE REACHING ERN MT BY EARLY EVENING AND INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT. AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN ACCELERATION OF SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN INFLUX OF RELATIVELY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR OVER CNTRL AND ERN MT. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PERSIST OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...AND AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITHIN THE ZONE OF STRONG FORCING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTENSIFY AS THEY SPREAD NEWD. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND LIKELY. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FARTHER SWD OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WY AND WRN SD AND SPREAD NEWD. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ...SRN PLAINS... ONGOING MCS OVER CNTRL OK MAY PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE DOWNSTREAM WILL LIKELY DESTABILIZE FROM ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG...AND STORMS MAY REINTENSIFY ALONG THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND SPREAD SEWD. NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ABOVE SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND CONTRIBUTE TO 40-50 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. FARTHER W AND NW THROUGH NWRN TX...OK AND KS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY PERSIST FROM THURSDAYS STORMS...AND THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...RISING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL ENHANCE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND CONTRIBUTE TO WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO AND NM SHOULD NOT BE AS HIGH AS PREVIOUS DAYS. IF STORMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP THEY SHOULD REMAIN VERY ISOLATED...BUT WITH POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE GIVEN EXPECTED DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. GIVEN THE CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THE THREAT IN THESE AREAS WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ..DIAL.. 06/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z |