Jun 17, 2005 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jun 17 05:50:31 UTC 2005
Categorical Graphic
20050617 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20050617 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20050617 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20050617 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 170547
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1247 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2005
   
   VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE
   MOT 55 SSE Y22 50 SSW PHP 45 WSW MHN 20 W IML 15 ENE AKO 40 SE CYS
   25 ENE CYS 55 NE DGW 30 NNW GCC 40 NE COD 50 SSE LVM 30 NNW HLN 25
   NNW CTB.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW
   GLS 20 NNW HOU 30 N CLL 10 NNE ACT 20 SW MWL 40 S SPS 45 E SPS 25
   NNW PRX 30 SSE PGO 40 NNW HOT 30 NW LIT 35 E LIT 35 SSW GLH 30 NE
   MCB 10 ESE GPT.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W RRT 55 WSW AXN
   30 SSE FSD 15 NNE FNB 25 NE UNO 45 NNE MEI 35 SSW SEM 10 NW TOI 10
   ESE LGC 25 W AHN 35 N CAE 25 SSW SOP 35 NNW RWI 35 ESE CHO 50 E MGW
   10 WNW DUJ 35 ENE ART 25 ENE PBG ...CONT... 40 ENE PSX 30 NE AUS 65
   NNE BGS 15 SW CVS 30 WNW RTN 20 WNW DGW 60 NNW CPR 25 SW EVW 45 E
   U31 50 E LOL 70 SSE BNO 45 WSW BNO 60 NE MFR 20 S CEC.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MT INTO THE NRN HIGH
   PLAINS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN AND ERN TX INTO THE
   LOWER MS VALLEY...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY A RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL
   U.S. FLANKED BY UPPER LOWS OVER THE WRN AND ERN STATES. HEIGHTS ARE
   FORECAST TO RISE OVER THE CNTRL U.S. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NEWD
   INTO THE PLAINS. A SIGNIFICANT SPEED MAX NOW ROUNDING THE BASE OF
   THE NWRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES
   AND MT TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT.
   
   
   ..MT THROUGH THE WRN DAKOTAS...
   
   SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER CNTRL MT TODAY IN RESPONSE TO FORCING
   FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH NEWD EJECTING MID/UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX.
   THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NEWD THROUGH ERN MT AND INTO SRN CANADA
   DURING THE AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH
   THE STATE REACHING ERN MT BY EARLY EVENING AND INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS
   OVERNIGHT. AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING SURFACE
   LOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN ACCELERATION OF SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS
   WILL MAINTAIN AN INFLUX OF RELATIVELY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE 
   INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR OVER CNTRL AND ERN MT. STEEP MID
   LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PERSIST OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...AND AS
   SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED BY
   AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITHIN THE ZONE OF STRONG
   FORCING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS OVER THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN AND INTENSIFY AS THEY SPREAD NEWD. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
   WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH LARGE HAIL
   AND DAMAGING WIND LIKELY. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
   GIVEN INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING SURFACE
   LOW AND INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
   FARTHER SWD OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WY AND WRN SD AND SPREAD
   NEWD. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE
   MAIN THREATS.
   
   
   ...SRN PLAINS...
   
   ONGOING MCS OVER CNTRL OK MAY PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE
   ATMOSPHERE DOWNSTREAM WILL LIKELY DESTABILIZE FROM ERN TX INTO THE
   LOWER MS VALLEY WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG...AND STORMS MAY
   REINTENSIFY ALONG THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND SPREAD SEWD.
   NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ABOVE SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
   CONTRIBUTE TO 40-50 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
   STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
   
   FARTHER W AND NW THROUGH NWRN TX...OK AND KS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY
   PERSIST FROM THURSDAYS STORMS...AND THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN
   BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...RISING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH
   BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL ENHANCE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND
   CONTRIBUTE TO WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE
   POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES
   AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO AND NM SHOULD NOT BE AS HIGH AS
   PREVIOUS DAYS. IF STORMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP THEY SHOULD REMAIN VERY
   ISOLATED...BUT WITH POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE GIVEN EXPECTED DEGREE
   OF INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. GIVEN THE
   CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THE THREAT IN THESE AREAS WILL MAINTAIN ONLY
   5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
   
   ..DIAL.. 06/17/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z