Jun 23, 2005 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jun 23 05:30:22 UTC 2005
Categorical Graphic
20050623 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20050623 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20050623 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20050623 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 230528
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1228 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2005
   
   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NW
   CMX 50 SSE ELO DLH MSP FRM SPW YKN 9V9 ABR GFK 75 WNW RRT.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E CEC 40 NW MFR 70
   N LMT 60 NNE LMT 15 WNW 4LW 50 NNW SVE 40 W SVE 50 SE EKA 30 E CEC.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW YUM DRA 40 E
   TPH 30 WSW TWF 27U BTM 3HT GGW 60 N OLF ...CONT... OSC MTW 40 NNE
   ALO LNK GCK DHT 40 SE ELP.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLS 50 N HOU 20 NNE
   LFK 35 SE SHV JAN MEI 30 NNW MGM AHN 40 S CLT 20 S RDU 35 N HSE.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS MN AND ERN DAKOTAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   DOMINANT UPPER AIR FEATURES FOR THIS PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGH
   COVERING MUCH OF CENTRAL/SWRN CONUS...WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER FL AND
   ERN GULF...AND PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM FLOW FIELD OVER CENTRAL/NRN
   ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS.  PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN
   MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SRN BC AND PACIFIC NW -- IS FCST TO
   MOVE ENEWD ACROSS CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND NRN PLAINS. 
   MEANWHILE...WEAKER PERTURBATIONS WILL MOVE SLOWLY ENEWD FROM UT/CO
   ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  SFC COLD FRONT -- ASSOCIATED WITH
   MID/UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER NW STATES -- IS FCST TO DEVELOP ACROSS
   MT/SK BETWEEN 23/06Z AND 23/12Z...THEN MOVE EWD ACROSS DAKOTAS AND
   MUCH OF MN DURING DAY-1 PERIOD.  THIS FRONT ALSO SHOULD MOVE SEWD
   OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...REACHING CENTRAL NEB AND ERN CO BY
   24/12Z.
   
   ...UPPER MIDWEST TO CENTRAL PLAINS...
   SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG OR JUST BEHIND
   SFC COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON OVER ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN...WITH
   ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE FARTHER SW OVER STRONGLY HEATED/HIGHER
   TERRAIN OF WRN NEB/NERN CO.  DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL ARE
   POSSIBLE.  PREFRONTAL AIR MASS ACROSS ERN DAKOTAS/MN WILL BE
   CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEW POINTS IN MID 60S TO LOW 70S F...SUPPORTING
   STRONG TO EXTREME LATE AFTERNOON BUOYANCY.  MODIFIED ETA AND ETA-KF
   SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPES 3000-4500 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE OVER THIS
   REGION.  CINH IS REMOVED FOR
   1. MID-UPPER 90S F SFC TEMPS...WHICH ARE HIGHER THAN FCST...AND/OR
   2. ENHANCED FRONTAL ASCENT...WHICH IS POSSIBLE.
   
   STRONGEST MID/UPPER LEVEL ASCENT AND LOW LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING ARE
   EXPECT TO REMAIN N OF CANADIAN BORDER. CAPPING IS EXPECTED TO
   STRENGTHEN WITH SWD EXTENT OVER NRN/CENTRAL CONUS...BENEATH
   RELATIVELY WARM 700 AND 500 MB TEMPS...RENDERING NEAR-FRONTAL SEVERE
   THREAT MORE CONDITIONAL WITH INCREASING DISTANCE FROM BORDER. 
   HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG BUOYANCY AND AT LEAST MARGINAL SHEAR
   ANTICIPATED...PRIND PROBABILITIES ARE ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR
   FRONTAL FORCING AND DIABATIC HEATING TO BREAK CAP THAT CATEGORICAL
   RISK SHOULD EXTEND INTO ERN SD.
   
   SINCE STRONGEST ISALLOBARIC FORCING WILL BE FARTHER N ACROSS
   CANADA...BOUNDARY LAYER WIND PROFILES SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY
   SOME WLY COMPONENT...LIMITING SIZE OF LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. 
   HOWEVER...35-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAY DEVELOP FROM ERN NEB/SD
   BORDER NWD.  FARTHER SW...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL DIMINISH WITH MIDLEVEL
   WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.  HOWEVER...INTENSE SFC HEATING AND RESULTANT
   DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS WILL SUPPORT SOME STRONG-SEVERE GUST
   AND HAIL POTENTIAL IN ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP.  MOST
   PROBABLE AREA/TIME FOR SUCH ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE FROM NERN CO
   ACROSS W-CENTRAL NEB...IN 21Z-01Z TIME FRAME.
   
   ..EDWARDS/BANACOS.. 06/23/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z