SPC AC 231626
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1126 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2005
   
   VALID 231630Z - 241200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE
   CMX 25 SE IWD 45 WNW EAU 15 WSW OTG 60 ENE ANW 15 NNW VTN 35 ESE PHP
   15 W ABR 40 SSE JMS 75 NNE DVL.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW MOB 45 N MOB
   20 SSW SEM 10 WSW AUO 40 ESE AHN 25 W SOP 35 S ECG 35 N HSE
   ...CONT... OSC 20 N MKG 25 NNW MKE 15 NNW CGX 25 SSE HUF 15 NW EVV
   25 SSE MVN 25 NNE ALN 25 NW BRL 25 E ALO 35 WNW ALO 35 NE OMA 20 NW
   LNK 55 SSW HLC 20 NW CVS 40 SE ELP ...CONT... 75 SSW GBN 20 N IGM 50
   ENE ELY 50 SW TWF 15 SE 27U 20 E BTM 25 SE LWT 60 SW GGW 60 N OLF.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
   TONIGHT FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO MN/NW WI....
   
   ...DAKOTAS/MN/NW WI AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
   A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN ALBERTA WILL MOVE EWD
   OVER THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE AN EMBEDDED SPEED
   MAX OVER MT EJECTS EWD/ENEWD NEAR AND JUST N OF THE CANADIAN BORDER.
    AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE
   DAKOTAS/MN BY EARLY TONIGHT...PROVIDING A POTENTIAL FOCUS FOR
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
   
   12Z SOUNDINGS REVEAL THAT THE DEEPER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME HAS
   BEEN SWEPT EWD TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...ON THE NOSE OF A VERY WARM
   EML PLUME OVER THE DAKOTAS.  850 MB TEMPERATURES OF 27-30 C AT THE
   BASE OF THE EML ARE PROVIDING A STRONG CAP OVER THE NRN
   PLAINS...WHERE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES EXCEED 100 F.  MEANWHILE...
   SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONTINUATION OF THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
   PLUME FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO WRN ND...IN PROXIMITY TO THE
   SURFACE COLD FRONT.  RECENT RUNS OF THE NAM CONTINUE WITH MORE
   AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER NE ND/MN BY THIS
   AFTERNOON...THOUGH THIS DEVELOPMENT MAY BE AN ARTIFACT OF THE BMJ
   CONVECTIVE SCHEME /WHICH DOES NOT CONSIDER CIN/ AND THE BELT OF MID
   LEVEL MOISTURE.
   
   STILL...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON/
   EVENING ALONG OR A LITTLE BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WHERE ASCENT
   WILL GRADUALLY REMOVE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.  LOCAL DEEPENING OF THE
   MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND DAYTIME HEATING ALONG THE FRONT...BENEATH
   THE VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL RESULT IN STRONG
   INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS TO MN. DEEP LAYER
   VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING
   SEGMENTS...THOUGH WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND CAA IN THE AREA WHERE
   CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUGGEST THAT DAMAGING WINDS AND
   LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
   TONIGHT.
   
   THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO FORM AS FAR SW AS THE HIGH PLAINS.  DEEP
   INVERTED-V PROFILES AND WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR WITH SWD EXTENT
   SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS FROM LATE AFTERNOON
   INTO THIS EVENING.
   
   ..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 06/23/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z