Jun 26, 2005 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Updated: Sun Jun 26 06:16:16 UTC 2005
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SPC AC 260613 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0113 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNW CMX 60 WSW IWD 20 WSW EAU 25 SE RST 25 SW FSD 20 E ANW 15 E LBF 25 ENE GLD 30 ENE LIC 15 NE CYS 35 SE DGW 45 NNE CPR 20 E WEY 15 WNW LVM 65 ENE BIL 45 NNW MLS 60 NNE OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE DRT 25 SW HDO 10 ESE AUS 35 SSE FTW 30 ENE HUT 35 NW HUT 40 ESE DDC 20 NNE GAG 40 NNE CDS 45 NNE BGS 45 SW MRF ...CONT... 25 ESE DUG 35 WNW SVC 60 E SOW 30 ENE INW 10 NNW FLG 30 NNW GCN 25 N U17 50 NW GJT 15 SW RKS 25 NNE EVW 30 ESE ENV 55 E U31 20 NE U31 35 WNW WMC 60 NNE SVE 50 SW MHS 35 SSW MFR 20 N RDM 30 NNW PDT 40 SSW GEG 45 ENE EPH 15 W EAT 50 W EAT 50 SSE BLI 25 NNE BLI ...CONT... 50 NE CTB 25 SE HVR 65 W GGW 25 N GGW 55 N OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW BUF 20 SW UCA 35 NNW PBG ...CONT... 60 NNW 3B1 60 WNW HUL HUL ...CONT... 15 SSW JFK 30 NE HGR 15 ESE MGW 45 SSE PKB 20 NNW SSU 25 NE SBY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY WWD TO PARTS OF THE NRN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN STATES WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...AS ANOTHER UPSTREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW LOCATED ALONG THE NRN BC COAST DIGS SEWD TOWARD THE PAC NW. THIS EVOLUTION WILL RESULT IN THE EJECTION OF A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH FROM THE ERN GREAT BASIN TO ERN MT/WY BY 27/00Z...AND THEN ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. IN THE EAST...26/00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SERN STATES. THESE FEATURES WILL TRACK W/NW TOWARD ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND THE OH VALLEY TODAY. ...UPPER MS VALLEY WWD TO PORTIONS OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... SURFACE LOW INITIALLY LOCATED OVER FAR NWRN SD IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY AND MOVE EWD TOWARD ABR AS HEIGHTS FALL IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THESE HEIGHT FALLS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A SSWLY LLJ AS IT REDEVELOPS NWD FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE ERN DAKOTAS/MN. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SPREADING NWD. THE SURFACE LOW...WARM FRONT AND A COLD FRONT MOVING EWD INTO CENTRAL ND BY LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCI OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CLUSTERS OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS IA INTO SRN MN/WI AND ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF ND IN ASSOCIATION WITH SEPARATE LOW LEVEL JETS NOSING INTO THESE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY ALSO BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF SD NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. CLOUDINESS FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NNEWD AWAY FROM THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES PROVIDING FOR SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS ND/SD TO SRN MN. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES EXTENDING EWD OVER THE NRN PLAINS ATOP A MOISTENING AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT VERY STRONG INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SEWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT INTO SRN MN. LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING NEWD TOWARD THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF THE GREAT BASIN TROUGH AND ATTENDANT 50 KT SWLY MID LEVEL JET ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM INITIATION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN MT/WY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL THEN DEVELOP NEWD ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE SD SURFACE LOW AS UVVS INCREASE OVER THIS AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELLS FROM INITIALLY ACROSS SERN MT/NERN WY AND THE DAKOTAS BEFORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS E AND NE. LARGE DAMAGING HAIL WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WHERE INSTABILITY WILL THE GREATEST. THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE SURFACE LOW EWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES WILL BE MAXIMIZED. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE LLJ ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS SUGGESTS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT. ...FOUR CORNERS TO CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM WRN NEB SWWD TO ERN CO/NM. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL EXTEND SWD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR DECREASING WITH SRN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY. THIS SUGGESTS A GREATER CONCENTRATION OF STORMS WILL BE ACROSS WRN NEB TO PARTS OF ERN CO...WITH MORE ISOLATED STORMS SWD TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES EXTENDING WWD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SUGGESTS A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THIS AREA TODAY WILL SUPPORT SUFFICIENT UVVS WITHIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A TROUGH MOVING EWD INTO WRN ID/SERN ORE. MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES INDICATING STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ...PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND... CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MAINLY SRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD TO SERN NY/NERN PA THIS AFTERNOON. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS COMBINED WITH 25-30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR HAIL LOCALLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LEVELS. ..PETERS/JEWELL.. 06/26/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z |