SPC AC 011624
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1124 AM CDT FRI JUL 01 2005
   
   VALID 011630Z - 021200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE
   SJT 40 SSW LBB 35 NNW TCC 15 E COS 45 NW AKO 45 WSW MHN 40 NW BBW 40
   NE MCK 40 SSW HLC 20 W END 40 ESE OKC 25 SW DUA 20 SE SEP 40 NNE
   SJT.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NE
   MOT 50 N REJ 30 S 4BQ 45 NNW COD 35 N LVM 50 NNW GGW.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE
   ILM 15 E FLO 35 S CLT 40 NW HKY 15 NNW BKW 45 SSE LBE 40 WSW ELM 40
   NNE ART.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SE ELP 35 NW GDP
   10 NNW 4CR 40 E DRO 15 W GJT 30 SSW EVW 20 SSW PIH 35 WNW SUN 35 NNW
   BOI 30 NE BKE 20 SSW LWS 70 NW FCA ...CONT... 35 WSW GLS 45 ESE AUS
   55 E JCT 55 SW SJT 20 S P07.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE BML 20 WSW EEN
   30 NNW EWR 15 NW DOV 15 SSW WAL.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E INL 25 NW AXN 15
   WNW FSD 30 ENE OLU 40 SW FNB 20 W JLN 25 ESE UNO 25 ESE MDH 40 SE
   BMG 15 ESE DAY 20 W CLE.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
   INTO THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE
   CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS INTO CENTRAL/ERN MT...
   
   ...NORTHEAST U.S./LEE OF CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/NC-VA PIEDMONT...
   MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHARPEN TODAY AS IT PROGRESSES EWD
   TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.  SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
   THIS FEATURE /EXTENDING FROM ERN ONTARIO SWWD INTO CENTRAL KY AT
   15Z/ WILL CONTINUE EWD AND MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS LATER TODAY.
    IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...LEE TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL DEFINED
   ACROSS ERN NY SSWWD INTO THE LEE OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS.  MORNING
   VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES NEAR THE LEE TROUGH...
   WHICH WILL LIKELY ALLOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES TO BE REACHED BY THE
   EARLY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THIS REGION.  12Z SOUNDINGS FROM IAD
   AND ALB INDICATE LAPSE RATES REMAIN LIMITED.  HOWEVER...PLUME OF
   STEEPER LAPSE RATES EVIDENT AT BUF THIS MORNING WILL SPREAD EWD
   ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND.  IN ADDITION...AFTERNOON
   HEATING WILL STILL BOOST SBCAPES AOA 200O J/KG OVER A LARGE AREA
   GIVEN RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CURRENTLY IN PLACE.
   
   MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND RESULTANT SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONGER NORTH
   OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE...WITH SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FORECAST
   FOR SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS WITH STORMS DEVELOPING
   AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.  EXPECT SMALL LINES WILL DEVELOP DURING
   THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON AND SPREAD A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
   LARGE HAIL EWD INTO THE EARLY EVENING... ESPECIALLY INTO UPSTATE NY
   AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.  EWD EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT MAY BE LIMITED BY
   CLOUDS/STABLE ONSHORE FLOW PREVALENT ATTM OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN
   NEW ENGLAND.  FARTHER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...SLY SURFACE WINDS ALONG AND
   EAST OF THE LEE TROUGH APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR 25-35 KT DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR SWD INTO VA/NC...DESPITE THE WEAKER WLY FLOW ALOFT.  THIS
   SUGGESTS AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAY ATTAIN MULTICELLULAR
   ORGANIZATION WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
   
   ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
   AND ALLOW INFLUX OF 50/LOWER 60F DEW POINTS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
   WITHIN SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.  MORNING WV IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK
   DISTURBANCES WILL SPREAD ESEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY AND
   LIKELY INCREASE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH
   PLAINS LATER TODAY/THIS EVENING.  AIR MASS WILL BE VERY SUITABLE FOR
   SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE EVOLUTION INTO ONE OR TWO BOWING MCS/S
   OVERNIGHT...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING 1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE
   AND 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR.  MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR APPEARS TO BE
   SHAPING UP FROM E-CENTRAL/SERN CO SEWD ACROSS OK/TX PANHANDLES...AND
   WILL KEEP HIGHEST PROBABILITIES THERE. ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT
   HAIL/WIND MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN DEGREE OF POTENTIAL
   STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION.
   
   ...ERN MT INTO WRN ND...
   LEE TROUGH/SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BECOME WELL
   DEFINED FROM NWRN ND/NERN MT SSWWD LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  IN
   ADDITION...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY REMAIN RELATIVELY MOIST /I.E.
   SURFACE DEW POINTS FROM 45-55F/ DESPITE DEEP MIXING AS AFTERNOON
   TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 80S.  THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
   MLCAPES WILL NOT BE TOO IMPRESSIVE / 750-1200 J/KG /... EFFECTIVE
   SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT SUGGESTS STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO
   SUPERCELLS/MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE
   HAIL INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
   
   ...ERN PORTION OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...
   OVERNIGHT MCS HAS TEMPORARILY STABILIZED MUCH OF SRN KS/OK/AR THIS
   MORNING...WITH COMPOSITE OUTFLOW/EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT SHIFTING SWD
   INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/NRN TX. AIR MASS REMAINS VERY MOIST
   AND WILL BECOME HIGHLY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE BY THE MID
   AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SSEWD
   AWAY FROM STRONGER FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT ORGANIZED
   SEVERE THREAT INTO ERN TX AND THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY. 
   THOUGH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS LOCALIZED WIND/HAIL MAY
   BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
   
   ...TN VALLEY INTO SRN APPALACHIANS/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
   REFERENCE SWOMCD 1573. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD BE DRIVEN
   PRIMARILY BY INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY...AS SFC-6KM SHEAR
   IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20KTS.  ADDITIONALLY... MID-LEVEL
   SUBSIDENCE LAYER EVIDENT ON JAN AND BMX SOUNDINGS FROM 12Z MAY LIMIT
   SRN EXTENT OF SEVERE POTENTIAL. STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE
   IN PLACE AT BNA /850-500MB LAPSE RATE OF 7C/KM/...AND THIS MAY
   RESULT IN STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND AN ISOLATED/BRIEF-LIVED SEVERE
   THREAT ALONG NRN PORTION OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE
   ACROSS MIDDLE/ERN TN...NRN AL...AND FAR NWRN GA. SCATTERED PULSE
   TYPE STORMS...OR SMALL MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS...APPEAR PROBABLE WITH
   BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH STRONGER CORES
   THROUGH AFTERNOON.
   
   ..EVANS/BANACOS.. 07/01/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z