SPC AC 051250
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0750 AM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005
   
   VALID 051300Z - 061200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE
   COS 35 ENE FCL 60 NE DGW RAP 20 S VTN BUB 15 NW HSI 10 ENE RSL 30
   ESE CSM 30 E BGS 30 S INK 35 SSE GDP 40 NW GDP 35 SE 4CR 35 SW PUB
   15 NE COS.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE
   HUL 25 WSW BGR 20 ESE LCI 30 NNE POU 15 NE AVP 25 NE PSB 20 E FKL 25
   NNE ERI.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW
   HUM 15 SSE BTR 40 NE MCB 20 N LUL 45 E LUL 30 NNE MOB 35 WSW PNS.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E CRP 35 NNE NIR
   20 W HDO 25 SE DRT.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W ELP 20 SSE ONM
   35 NNE 4SL 45 NE CEZ 35 NE U17 15 WNW BCE 55 W MLF 50 W ELY 30 NE
   U31 20 SE BAM 20 NNE EKO 60 W OGD 50 ENE EVW 30 W RWL 35 S CPR 20 E
   WRL 40 N SHR 15 NE MLS 30 NW GDV 60 NNE OLF.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNW GFK 40 ENE JMS
   40 SSE ABR 10 SW BKX 40 SW SPW 25 NW LWD 40 ENE MKC 35 SSE TOP 35
   NNW BVO 25 SSE TUL 20 SE FYV 60 N LIT 20 SW PAH 35 E SLO 25 S DNV 45
   SE MMO 45 ENE MLI LSE 40 ESE EAU 15 NNE AUW 45 NE GRB 35 NNW PLN.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE HI PLNS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF PA...NY AND NEW
   ENG...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL GULF CST
   REGION...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS...A TREND
   THAT WILL BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED LATER IN THE WEEK... WILL BEGIN
   THIS PERIOD AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE NRN GRT BASIN/NRN RCKYS
   DOWNSTREAM FROM UPR LOW APPROACHING THE BC CST.  FARTHER E
   ...COMPLEX POSITIVE TILT TROUGH NOW EXTENDING FROM MO TO THE UPR GRT
   LKS SHOULD CONTINUE EWD.  OVERALL SETUP WILL MAINTAIN CONFLUENT
   WSWLY FLOW OVER THE ERN GRT LKS/ST LAWRENCE VLY.
   
   AT LOWER LEVELS...PERSISTENT WNWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN LEE
   TROUGH OVER THE HI PLNS.  MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ERN
   TROUGH SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY SE INTO NRN NEW ENG/UPSTATE NY AND NW PA
   LATER TODAY...AND REACH A SRN NEW ENG/NRN WV LINE BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
   
   
   ...CNTRL AND SRN HI PLNS...
   SLIGHT RIDGING IN PROGRESS OVER THE NRN GRT BASIN WILL ENHANCE NWLY
   COMPONENT TO MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW OVER THE HI PLNS TODAY...AND
   MAINTAIN A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AS LOW LEVEL
   WINDS REMAIN BACKED TO A S/SELY DIRECTION E OF THE RCKYS.  AMPLE
   RECYCLED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS CONVECTION WILL
   BE AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT NEW STORMS...AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
   CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD REGION DOWNSTREAM FROM SRN BRANCH JET NOW
   OVER NV/UT.
   
   WHILE ACTIVITY COULD INITIATE ANYWHERE FROM SE MT SWD INTO SE
   NM...THE AREA FROM SE WY/WRN NEB THROUGH ERN CO/NE NM APPEARS MOST
   FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS GIVEN EXPECTED LOCATION/
   ORIENTATION OF LEE TROUGH SEGMENTS AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AXES.
    COMBINATION OF MLCAPE AOA 2000 J/KG AND DEEP NWLY SHEAR AOA 35 KTS
   COULD YIELD A FEW LONG-LIVED STORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL.  IN
   ADDITION...WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW LIKELY WILL REMAIN WEAK /ON THE
   ORDER OF 10-15 KTS IN THE LOWEST 200 MB/...STRONG DIRECTIONAL 
   COMPONENT WILL PROMOTE SOME DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION AND
   MAY YIELD TWO OR THREE TORNADOES.
   
   AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...PATTERN WILL ONCE
   AGAIN BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE HI PLAINS STORMS TO CONSOLIDATE INTO
   SEVERAL FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCSS.  THESE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN MOVE
   GENERALLY SE/SSE...EXTENDING A GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THREAT FOR
   SEVERE WIND/HAIL INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER THE WRN PORTION OF THE
   LWR PLAINS FROM WRN/NRN KS SWD INTO W TX.
   
   
   ...LWR GRT LKS INTO NRN NEW ENG...
   BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE
   NERN U.S. TODAY AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.  COUPLED WITH
   MODERATE DEGREE OF SURFACE HEATING...EXPECT THAT MLCAPE WILL AVERAGE
   AROUND 1500 J/KG OVER UPSTATE NY AND NRN/CNTRL NEW ENG BY EARLY
   AFTERNOON.
   
   CONTINUED EWD MOVEMENT OF UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE
   /35-40 KT/...UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW OVER REGION...AND
   CONTRIBUTE AT LEAST A MODEST DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
   ASCENT.  THE LATEST STLT DATA SUGGEST THAT THE GREATEST LOW LEVEL
   HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR ALONG AN AXIS FROM WRN/CNTRL PA
   ENE INTO NRN/CNTRL NEW ENG.  NEW STORMS FORMING ALONG THIS
   CORRIDOR...AND/OR INTENSIFICATION OF EXISTING ELEVATED ACTIVITY NOW
   OVER REGION...MAY LEAD TO A FEW AFTERNOON CELLS WITH BOWING
   SEGMENTS/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND.
   
   
   ...CNTRL GULF CST...
   T.S. "CINDY" SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NNW TOWARD SE LA. LOW LEVEL
   WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO INCREASE OVER THE CNTRL GULF CST
   REGION...AND LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. 
   LIGHTNING/STLT DATA SHOW SEVERAL TSTM AREAS IN THE NRN AND ERN
   QUADRANTS OF THE SYSTEM...NOT SURPRISING GIVEN HYBRID NATURE OF THE
   CIRCULATION.  VERY RICH GULF AIR IS IN PLACE ALONG THE CNTRL
   GULF...WITH AVERAGE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. AS
   THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND
   AS DIURNAL HEATING FURTHER DESTABILIZES THE NRN FRINGE OF THE
   SYSTEM...POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS WITH LOW
   LEVEL ROTATION/POSSIBLE TORNADOES LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
   
   ..CORFIDI/BRIGHT.. 07/05/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z