SPC AC 151228
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0728 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2005
   
   VALID 151300Z - 161200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE
   DGW 20 NNW 81V 25 WNW REJ 60 ESE REJ 45 WNW VTN 45 E SNY AKO 20 NNW
   DEN 40 SE DGW.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW ART 10 NNE PSM
   ...CONT... 70 NE ISN 20 NNW P24 25 WSW BIS 35 E MBG 15 ENE ABR 35 SE
   FAR 20 SE INL ...CONT... 35 E RWL 35 WNW WRL 55 NW RIW 45 WNW LND 45
   W RKS 35 E VEL CAG 45 WSW LAR 35 E RWL ...CONT... 30 NNE CVS 45 W
   PVW 25 E PVW 25 NNW CDS 35 NW CSM 15 WNW END 25 N BVO 55 NNE JLN 20
   ESE MKC 25 NNW TOP 20 S CNK 25 WSW HLC 50 SW GLD 55 N CAO 15 SSW CAO
   30 NNE CVS ...CONT... 75 S GBN 30 SSE PHX 15 NNW PHX 45 WNW PHX 75
   SE EED 30 ESE EED 30 S LAS 35 S DRA 50 SW DRA 30 ENE NID 20 SE NID
   30 N RAL 15 NNW RAL 30 SSE PMD 25 N OXR 25 NE SBA 25 NNW BFL FAT 40
   E SCK 60 NNE SAC 30 N RNO 40 WSW WMC 45 SE BNO 30 NNW BKE 25 NE GEG
   40 N 4OM.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL/NRN HI
   PLNS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPR RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION THIS PERIOD AS
   FAIRLY STRONG UPR LOW NOW OFF THE BC CST PROGRESSES E/SE TO THE
   BC/AB BORDER.  FARTHER E...WEAK POSITIVE TILT TROUGH EXPECTED TO
   REMAIN MORE OR LESS STATIONARY FROM MI TO TX.
   
   SHALLOW NRN PLNS COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY SE AND WEAKEN
   OVER MN/SE SD AND NEB. A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD TAKE SHAPE LATER
   TODAY/TONIGHT OVER ID/MT AND THE WRN DAKOTAS IN RESPONSE TO UPR
   SYSTEM CROSSING BC.
   
   ...ERN WY/ERN CO/WRN NEB/WRN SD...
   LIGHT ESELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER REGION THIS AFTERNOON
   IN WAKE OF WEAK COLD FRONT SETTLING SE INTO CNTRL NEB. THIS WILL
   ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO INCREASE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
   UPR 50S TO LOW 60S EXPECTED OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN HI PLAINS. 
   COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SURFACE HEATING SHOULD
   BOOST MEAN AFTERNOON MLCAPE TO BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG.
   
   UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
   HIGHER TERRAIN AND/OR INVOF LEE TROUGH OVER ERN WY/NRN CO/WRN NEB
   AND WRN SD THIS AFTERNOON.  DEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO BE PROMOTED BY UPR
   IMPULSE APPARENT IN WV IMAGERY NOW CROSSING WY...ALTHOUGH FORCING
   WITH THIS FEATURE MAY HAVE MOVED BEYOND THE MOUNTAINS BY PEAK
   HEATING.  AT ANY RATE...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY MAY YIELD A FEW CELLS
   WITH HIGH WIND/HAIL AS THEY MOVE/DEVELOP E/SEWD.  PROXIMITY OF UPR
   RIDGE WILL KEEP DEEP NNWLY SHEAR QUITE MODEST /AOB 30 KTS/...AND
   SHOULD MITIGATE OVERALL COVERAGE/DEGREE OF AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
   SEVERE THREAT.
   
   ...ERN SD/MN/WRN WI
   SCATTERED STORMS MAY FORM THIS AFTERNOON ALONG COLD FRONT IN ZONE OF
   WEAKENING DEEP SHEAR/CONVERGENCE FROM MN SWWD INTO SD AS SURFACE
   HEATING BREAKS CAP.  MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED HAIL AND
   STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BUT
   WEAKNESS OF SHEAR AND ABSENCE OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD
   LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION/SEVERITY.
   
   ...E CNTRL/SE AZ...
   FAIRLY DEEP ENELY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER SE AZ THROUGH THE PERIOD ON
   SRN FRINGE OF UT HIGH. THIS WILL FAVOR WSW MOVEMENT OF STORMS
   LIKELY TO FORM OVER THE ERN RIM COUNTRY AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. 
   COUPLED WITH EXPECTED DEEP/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER OVER REGION
   ...A FEW FORWARD-PROPAGATING CELLS COULD YIELD STRONG LOCAL GUSTS
   LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
   
   ...WRN/CNTRL MT TONIGHT...
   A FEW STORMS COULD FORM TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY OVER WRN AND CNTRL MT
   AS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES ALONG COLD FRONT
   ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING BC TROUGH.  UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY AND
   SPARSE MOISTURE SUPPLY SHOULD CONFINE ANY SEVERE THREAT TO ISOLATED
   STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS MID LEVEL WSW FLOW INCREASES
   TO AOA 50 KTS.
   
   ..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 07/15/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z