SPC AC 181240
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0740 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2005
   
   VALID 181300Z - 191200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW
   JHW 15 W HLG 20 NW LUK 25 ENE VIH 45 SSW UIN 35 SSW CGX 35 SE MBL 55
   ESE ANJ.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE YUM 10 E IGM
   60 S SGU 45 NNW GCN 45 NNW INW 65 NE INW CEZ 35 SE MTJ 10 WSW EGE
   FCL AKO 30 SSW MCK 25 NE CNK 20 NW IRK 40 WSW LNR 10 WNW RHI 55 N
   CMX.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE GRT LKS AND
   OH VLY...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER MN SHOULD DEAMPLIFY AND BEGIN TO
   TURN MORE ENE LATER THIS PERIOD AS RIDGES REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
   SOUTHWEST AND OFF THE S ATLANTIC CST.  EXPECT NRN PART OF COLD FRONT
   ASSOCIATED WITH MN TROUGH WILL CONTINUE E TO THE LWR GRT LKS...WHILE
   THE SRN PART WEAKENS AND BEGINS TO REDEVELOP N ACROSS THE CNTRL
   PLNS.
   
   ...GRT LKS/OH VLY...
   COLD FRONT CROSSING THE UPR GRT LKS SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN TODAY AS
   UPR TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NE INTO ONTARIO.  HOWEVER...DAYTIME
   HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT STORM REINTENSIFICATION/REDEVELOPMENT ALONG
   AND POSSIBLY AHEAD OF BOUNDARY BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
   
   THE STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT LIKELY WILL REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE
   OF THE FRONT.  BUT DEEP WIND FIELD SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT...
   ESPECIALLY OVER LWR MI AND IND/NRN OH...TO SUPPORT ORGANIZATION INTO
   LINES WITH SMALL-SCALE BOWS.  WHILE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
   LIMIT CAPE...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
   INTO THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...EWD TO THE
   LWR LKS.
   
   FARTHER SW...WEAKER UPR FLOW WILL FAVOR LESS ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. 
   BUT PRESENCE OF SOMEWHAT STEEPER LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY 
   SUPPORT A FEW CLUSTERS OF STRONG PULSE STORMS WITH ISOLATED
   HAIL/WIND THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF MO/KS AND NRN OK.
   
   ...S CNTRL/SE CO INTO NRN/ERN NM AND THE WRN OK/TX PNHDLS...
   BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL SPREAD W INTO THE SRN RCKYS IN WAKE OF
   WEAKENING COLD FRONT NOSING S ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HI PLNS.  COUPLED
   WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING...REGION SHOULD SEE
   STORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON.  SELY LOW LEVEL WINDS BENEATH
   MODEST NNWLY UPR FLOW WILL YIELD SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A FEW
   ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS WITH HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND.  LARGE
   SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WEAK. BUT IF ENOUGH STORMS DO
   FORM...CONSOLIDATION INTO A S OR SSE-MOVING MCS MAY REQUIRE UPGRADE
   OF PARTS OF SRN CO AND NRN/ERN NM TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
   
   ...SRN AZ...
   SLIGHT W/E ELONGATION OF PERSISTENT UPR RIDGE RELATIVE TO RECENT
   DAYS EXPECTED TO VEER MID LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE NELY DIRECTION OVER
   SE AZ TODAY...AND POSSIBLY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
   THE NRN PART OF THE STATE.  THE UPR FLOW SHOULD...HOWEVER...REMAIN
   DIFFLUENT OVER SRN AND ERN SECTIONS...WHERE WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS WEAK
   IMPULSES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP S ALONG ERN FRINGE OF RIDGE. 
   THUS...SETUP SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL
   STORMS OVER THE ERN RIM AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE AZ/SW NM. 
   POTENTIAL WILL ONCE AGAIN EXIST FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AS THE
   ACTIVITY PROPAGATES SW INTO THE LWR DESERTS.
   
   ..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 07/18/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z