SPC AC 311940
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0240 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2005
   
   VALID 312000Z - 011200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SE
   OSC 40 SSW HTL 10 WSW GRB 15 WNW AUW 55 W RHI 25 SSW IWD 25 SW CMX
   65 NE MQT.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE CRP 25 NW VCT
   CLL 35 SSW GGG DYR 20 SE CMH 25 SSW YNG 20 W FKL 25 W ERI 50 NNE CLE
   ...CONT... 10 E DTW 10 E AZO 10 E BRL 10 ENE FLV SLN 20 ESE LAA 15
   SE TAD 10 ENE SAF 25 ENE ONM 20 SSE ALM 45 SE GDP 20 W FST 40 W SJT
   20 WNW JCT 45 WNW HDO 45 NW LRD.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE SAN 45 SSE BIH
   65 NW BIH 50 N SAC 40 WSW RBL 45 NE ACV 35 NNW MFR 25 NNW RDM 25 N
   ALW 15 ESE GEG 80 ENE 63S ...CONT... 60 ENE HVR 45 S GGW 20 W REJ 30
   SSW PHP 10 SW VTN 45 ENE ANW 15 SSW MHE 50 NE ATY 10 W INL
   ...CONT... 15 W MSS BTV 25 SSW MWN 10 E PSM.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES
   REGION...
   
   ...GREAT LAKES...
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOW A SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH OVER MN WITH A BAND OF ASCENT SPREADING EWD ACROSS LAKE
   SUPERIOR. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE UP
   OF MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES OF
   2000 TO 3000 J/KG JUST SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT ALONG AN AXIS FROM NRN
   MI INTO NRN WI. IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS PRESENT ALONG
   THE SOUTH EDGE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT. THIS
   AREA WOULD LIKELY HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE
   INITIATION. ALTHOUGH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 KT
   ALONG THE BOUNDARY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   LATE THIS AFTERNOON SUGGESTING SEVERE MULTICELLS WITH AN ISOLATED
   SUPERCELL WILL BE POSSIBLE. WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY
   THREAT DUE TO MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
   HOWEVER...THE MID-LEVELS FROM NERN WI TO THE EAST APPEAR COLD ENOUGH
   FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
   
   ...NORTHEAST...
   A CLUSTER OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING IN SRN NY AND NRN PA AHEAD
   OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN A
   POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S F.
   VAD WIND PROFILERS IN SRN NY SHOW ABOUT 15 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR
   SUGGESTING JUST ENOUGH SHEAR MAY BE PRESENT FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE
   THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. HAIL AND/OR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE
   MAY OCCUR BRIEFLY NEAR PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
   SCATTERED STORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG A SFC TROUGH AXIS IN
   THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN CO. THE STORMS WILL SPREAD SLOWLY ENEWD
   INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE DENVER PROFILER SHOWS
   ABOUT 10 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR SUGGESTING STORM MODE WILL BE PULSE IN
   NATURE. ALTHOUGH MLCAPE VALUES ARE STILL BELOW 1000
   J/KG...DESTABILIZATION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. IN
   ADDITION...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP EXCEEDING 8.5 C/KM
   WITH TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 40+ F. THIS SUGGESTS HAIL AND
   MARGINALLY SEVERE DOWNBURSTS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW CELLS NEAR
   PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ...DESERT SOUTHWEST...
   SCATTERED STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN
   CA. THE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS
   AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS IS MOIST WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F.
   THIS COMBINED WITH VERY WARM TEMPS IS CREATING MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500
   TO 2500 J/KG. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE
   POTENTIAL THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 07/31/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z