SPC AC 091558
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1058 AM CDT TUE AUG 09 2005
   
   VALID 091630Z - 101200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N
   CPR 25 ESE COD 20 ENE HLN 45 NW GTF 60 ESE CTB 40 SSE HVR 50 NE 4BQ
   40 SSE REJ 45 SSW RAP 45 ENE DGW 25 N CPR.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E
   OSC 10 ESE MTW 10 NNE DBQ 25 W DSM 25 SE OLU BUB 35 E ANW 20 SSE MHE
   55 NW RWF 70 NNE MSP 35 W CMX 60 NW ANJ.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW CNK 40 NE DDC
   25 ENE LBL 65 S LBL 40 NNE PVW 50 S CDS 20 S MLC 15 WNW JLN 30 ENE
   JEF 40 W SPI 25 NNW STJ 15 WNW CNK.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE SAN 25 NW EDW
   40 SSE FAT 40 S TVL 30 SSW NFL 25 SSE 4LW 25 ENE BNO 35 E S80 10 SSE
   S06 30 NW GEG 60 W 4OM 50 ENE BLI ...CONT... 70 NW DVL 20 WSW DVL 40
   ENE BIS 15 N MBG 35 SE MBG 50 NW HON 15 NW BRD 90 E ELO ...CONT...
   35 SE DTW 35 WSW FDY 25 SSE IND 35 SSW SDF 25 SSW LEX 30 W HTS 20 E
   UNI 20 NE YNG 25 WSW BUF ...CONT... 65 N BRO 20 S LRD.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN SD/NERN NEB INTO THE
   NRN/WRN GREAT LAKES...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...
   
   ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NRN/WRN GREAT LAKES...
   ONGOING BOW ECHO WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE AS IT SHIFTS
   ACROSS THE ERN U.P. OF MI AND POSSIBLY BUILD SWD INTO NRN LOWER MI
   THROUGH 20Z.  AIR MASS WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY
   CAPPED AHEAD OF AND SOUTH OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
   ACTIVITY.
   
   AS CAP WEAKENS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT NOW ADVANCING SSEWD FROM CENTRAL
   NEB INTO NRN MN...DEEP MOIST CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY DEVELOP ALONG
   THE FRONT FROM N-CENTRAL NEB INTO SRN MN PRIOR TO 21Z. AIR MASS IS
   ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE LATE THIS MORNING...WITH FURTHER
   HEATING/DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.  SHEAR
   WILL ALSO BE MUCH STRONGER TODAY...AS ACTIVE NRN STREAM PULLS
   MODERATE WLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. 
   THEREFORE...INCREASING STORMS WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO SUPERCELLS
   AND BOW ECHOES WHICH WILL SPREAD A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS ESEWD INTO ERN NEB/IA AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SRN MN/WI
   THROUGH THE EVENING.  OVERALL SETUP SUGGESTS ANOTHER LONG-LIVED BOW
   ECHO SYSTEM MAY EVOLVE ACROSS SWRN MN/NRN IA AND MOVE EWD INTO WRN
   WI THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND EXPECTED
   AMOUNT OF UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR.  HAVE CONCENTRATED MAXIMUM
   PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE ACCORDINGLY.
   
   ...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
   THOUGH LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
   IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT INTO NERN WY/CENTRAL MT...AXIS OF MODEST LOW
   LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PERSIST JUST EAST OF THE NRN ROCKIES.  IN
   ADDITION...LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD RESPOND TO APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH OVERSPREADING ID/WRN MT THIS AFTERNOON WITH RESULTANT SELY
   COMPONENT INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW AND SHEAR PROFILES OVER THE
   REGION.  WITH INCREASED LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND NARROW AXIS OF
   MODERATE INSTABILITY...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND PERSIST ESEWD OFF
   HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE EVENING.  SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS
   WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING 40-50 KT OF SFC-6 KM SHEAR...
   ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WITH STRONGER
   CORES.
   
   ..EVANS/JEWELL.. 08/09/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z