Aug 12, 2005 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Updated: Fri Aug 12 00:50:09 UTC 2005
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SPC AC 120046 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0746 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2005 VALID 120100Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW LUK BMG CMI BRL 20 NNW LWD 40 WNW DSM 10 NW ALO MSN 15 NW MKE 20 NE CGX SBN FWA DAY 30 NW LUK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W CZZ TRM 40 N DAG 35 SE BIH 15 NNW TPH 15 S U31 40 NE U31 ELY BYI 40 NNW PIH DLN 35 W MSO 63S EAT 70 NE SEA 45 ENE BLI ...CONT... 35 NW CTB MLS 60 NW REJ Y22 BIS DVL 75 NE DVL ...CONT... 10 SSW ART 10 S UCA MSV 25 S ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM WAL PSK LEX MVN BLV STL 45 NE COU MKC 10 NNE EMP 40 E TCC CNM FST 25 SSW P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE PSX 30 E CLL GGG ELD 35 N LIT ARG DYR MKL HSV RMG AND SOP 10 S HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE MID MS VLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.... CORRECTED GROUPING OF GEN TSTMS LINES. SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CONVECTION MOST OTHER AREAS APPEARS LARGELY IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING...AND SHOULD GENERALLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITH NIGHTFALL. ...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO GREAT LAKES... WHILE PRIMARY SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAS BECOME SHEARED AND ALREADY ACCELERATED EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION... SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG TOWARD THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER. IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE...WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG SURFACE FRONT ACROSS IOWA IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. DISCREPANCIES EXIST AMONG THE MODELS...BUT AT LEAST SOME STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET SEEMS LIKELY TO OCCUR TO THE SOUTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW. THIS MAY PROVIDE FOCUS/FORCING FOR GROWING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ALONG/NORTH OF WARM FRONT EAST OF LOW... FROM PARTS OF EXTREME EASTERN IOWA THROUGH THE MILWAUKEE/CHICAGO METROPOLITAN AREAS THIS EVENING. MOIST UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN WARM SECTOR SEEMS SUPPORTIVE OF AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...IN MODERATELY STRONG AND SHEARED FLOW REGIME. THIS PROVIDES POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING DAMAGING WIND THREAT...AT LEAST THIS EVENING...ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS...BUT LOSS OF WARM SECTOR HEATING IS EXPECTED TO MINIMIZE RISK CONTINUING EASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. ...N CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THRU MID MO VALLEY... WHILE BETTER MOISTURE/LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS FOCUSED AHEAD OF FRONTAL WAVE SHIFTING EAST OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...LOW-LEVELS REMAIN WARM/MOIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. MID-LEVEL COOLING/HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF DIGGING NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH COULD STILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME INCREASE IN STORMS THIS EVENING...BUT THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME AS LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING STEADILY STABILIZES BOUNDARY LAYER. ..KERR.. 08/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z |