SPC AC 170100
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0800 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2005
   
   VALID 170100Z - 171200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NNE
   DVL 20 S GFK 60 S FAR 35 WNW ATY 40 SSW ABR 25 NNW PIR 40 NNE PHP 35
   WSW PHP 50 NNW CDR 55 SSE 81V 20 SSW 81V 35 SSW 4BQ 30 S MLS 45 N
   MLS 50 NNW GGW.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW ILM 45 NNW FLO
   10 WNW GSP 15 S AND 30 E MCN 30 WSW AYS 20 S GNV 40 E SRQ 45 SSE FMY
   ...CONT... GPT 35 NNW BTR 30 SE LFK 35 SSE SEP 30 NE SJT 50 W SJT 20
   S P07 ...CONT... 20 SW FHU 30 NNE PHX 20 NE LAS 55 NE NID 30 WSW BIH
   30 WSW RNO 35 NW SVE 25 ENE 4LW 25 NE BNO 40 NW 27U 25 E MSO 35 NNW
   3TH 40 NNW 63S ...CONT... 65 WNW ANJ 70 NE ESC 40 SSE IMT 35 ESE AUW
   30 NW VOK 25 NW MCW 20 WSW FSD 40 W YKN 10 SSW ANW 10 SW LBF 50 W
   HLC 15 WNW DDC GAG 50 NE CSM 15 N OKC 30 NNE MLC 20 WNW HRO 40 ENE
   MVN 30 ESE BMG 20 E PKB 45 E MGW 30 NW BWI 35 SSW ACY ...CONT... 20
   NE CAR 30 SSW CAR 35 N 3B1 50 W 3B1.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...
   
   ...NRN PLAINS TO UPPER MS VLY...
   LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE
   CNTRL ROCKIES WAS SPREADING NEWD ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS
   EVE.  HIGH BASED TSTMS DEVELOPED VCNTY THE LEE-TROUGH ACROSS ERN
   PARTS OF WY/MT EARLIER TODAY.  SINCE THEN...A FEW TSTMS APPEAR TO BE
   ROOTING INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SITUATED VCNTY A WARM
   FRONT ACROSS ECNTRL MT.
   
   THETA-E ADVECTION WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVE AS A 40-45 KT LLJ
   DEVELOPS AND IMPINGES ON THE E-W ORIENTED WARM FRONT ALONG THE SD/ND
   BORDER.  STRONGEST ASCENT WILL SPREAD FROM ERN MT INTO WRN ND BY
   03Z...THEN TOWARD THE NRN RED RVR VLY BY DAYBREAK.  AS A RESULT...
   TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP/MOVE FROM ERN MT INTO MUCH OF ND
   OVERNIGHT...ULTIMATELY GROWING INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S. TSTMS WILL
   PROBABLY BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME AND AT LOCATIONS FARTHER
   EAST OVERNIGHT.  EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR AND MUCAPE WILL BE
   SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH A LARGE HAIL THREAT.  BUT...IF
   COLD POOL GENERATION CAN BECOME SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH...A DAMAGING WIND
   THREAT WILL EXIST...MAINLY ACROSS WRN-CNTRL-SERN ND.
   
   FARTHER E...A FEW TSTMS ARE BEING MAINTAINED ALONG A WEAK BRANCH OF
   THE LLJ/FRONT ACROSS CNTRL MN. THESE STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN
   AS STRONGER WARM ADVECTION REGIME SHIFTS TO THE GRTLKS REGION AND
   DEVELOPS UPSTREAM ACROSS ND.
   
   ...ERN GRT BASIN...
   UPPER LOW WAS MOVING NEWD THROUGH CNTRL NV PER WATER VAPOR WITH
   SEVERAL VORTICITY CENTERS ROTATING NEWD INTO THE ERN GRT BASIN. 
   STRONGEST TSTMS HAVE BEEN FAVORING THE BAND OF ASCENT CURRENTLY
   MOVING ACROSS THE SALT LAKE VLY SWD INTO THE WASATCH AND ERN UT. 
   ENHANCED VERTICAL SHEAR DOWNSTREAM FROM THE UPPER LOW HAS BEEN
   FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS.  AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS
   TO COOL THIS EVENING...TSTMS SHOULD DECREASE IN BOTH INTENSITY AND
   NUMBER.  UNTIL THEN...ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE
   POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS NRN/ERN UT.
   
   ...MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
   THE SEVERE THREAT IS DIMINISHING.  AFTN TSTMS HAVE CONGEALED INTO
   LARGE CLUSTERS WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING RAPIDLY OWING TO
   RAINFALL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS.  ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY
   ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS THROUGH MID-EVENING...BUT IT APPEARS THAT
   MAIN THREAT HAS SHIFTED TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
   
   ..RACY.. 08/17/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z