SPC AC 051955
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0255 PM CDT MON SEP 05 2005
   
   VALID 052000Z - 061200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NW
   CMX 60 SE DLH 15 S MKT 25 SW OLU 45 ENE GLD 20 NNW GLD 45 W IML 30
   WNW VTN 10 ESE MBG 10 NE BIS 70 NE MOT.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CTY AYS 40 NW SAV 45
   SE CAE FLO 45 WSW HSE ...CONT... 100 NNW ANJ 40 S IMT 15 N DBQ 35 NE
   P35 20 WNW EMP 40 E GAG 35 NNE CDS 65 NNW ABI SJT 10 SSW DRT
   ...CONT... 55 WSW COT 10 NE CLL GGG TXK HOT JBR DYR BNA 35 NNW CHA
   GAD SEM 25 SE CEW ...CONT... 75 S GBN GBN PRC PGA 35 W PUC 10 WSW
   EVW PIH 30 W MQM 35 ESE HLN 35 ESE LWT MLS 10 SSE OLF 60 NNW GGW.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS
   INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...
   
   ...ERN DAKOTAS...NEB THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY...
   
   SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL ND SWWD INTO SERN MT. A PRE-FRONTAL
   TROUGH EXTENDS FROM W CNTRL SD SWWD THROUGH WRN NEB INTO NERN CO.
   THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO
   DESTABILIZE IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO
   WRN MN AND SWWD INTO NEB. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THIS AREA IS STILL
   CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED STORMS. HEATING IS BEING TEMPERED SOMEWHAT
   OVER ND INTO MN WHERE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IS WIDESPREAD...KEEPING 
   TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S. A STRONG SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL
   PERSIST FROM ERN SD INTO MN DOWNSTREAM FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   CURRENTLY MOVING EWD INTO THE CNTRL DAKOTAS. THE STRONGER FORCING
   FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL JET
   SHOULD FOCUS ERN DAKOTAS AND MN INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NEW
   STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY IN THIS REGION AS THE
   CAP GRADUALLY WEAKENS. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR CURRENTLY REMAINS
   ALONG THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS ACROSS MN...SOMEWHAT REMOVED FROM THE
   STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...A BELT OF STRONGER (30-40 KT) MID
   LEVEL FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE
   DAKOTAS...RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS
   CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN
   MCS AS IT CONTINUES EWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT WITH A
   CONTINUING THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.
   
   STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND MIXING WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO THE CAP
   WEAKENING FARTHER SW INTO NEB. MIXING AND CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF
   THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE STORMS THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. ISOLATED
   LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH MID
   EVENING.
   
   ..DIAL.. 09/05/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z