Sep 11, 2005 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Updated: Sun Sep 11 06:00:09 UTC 2005
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SPC AC 110557 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 AM CDT SUN SEP 11 2005 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E INL 25 SE AXN 30 SW BKX 40 NNE VTN 25 SE PHP 40 WSW MBG 25 S BIS 60 N DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW FHU 20 SW SOW 25 NW CEZ 25 E GUC 25 SSW SNY 40 SE AIA 40 SE RAP 50 ESE REJ 10 WSW Y22 45 S P24 50 NNE MOT ...CONT... 145 NNW BUF 20 S APN 50 SSW IMT 15 W LSE 20 SSW MCW 15 WNW LNK 30 ESE RSL 10 WSW P28 50 NNE CSM FSI 35 SE SPS 25 SSW FTW 20 E CLL GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW HQM 30 SSW GEG 25 NNE HLN 15 SSW SHR 35 NNE RKS 50 S SLC 30 SW P38 60 N NID 30 NNE FAT 45 NE SCK 45 NNW SAC 60 NW UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW BHB 55 W 3B1. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW GNV 30 NW SSI 40 NNE SAV 35 WNW ILM HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS... ...NRN PLAINS... A LARGE UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE WRN US WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EWD TODAY WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS ERN MT AND WRN ND...ENOUGH ASCENT SHOULD SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS AND WRN MN TO SUPPORT THE INITIATION OF SCATTERED STORMS BY THIS EVENING. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL ORGANIZE AND MOVE SEWD REACHING ERN ND AND CNTRL SD BY LATE AFTERNOON. SFC DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE 60S F SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED DUE TO WARM TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SPREADING NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. AS ASCENT INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE CAPPING INVERSION MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR STORM INITIATION ALONG THE COLD FRONT. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST SHOULD RESULT IN EXPANDING STORM COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. NAM/NAMKF AND GFS MODEL FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS IN THE EVENING WITH A STORM COMPLEX SPREADING NEWD INTO CNTRL AND NRN MN OVERNIGHT. THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED BY A MID-LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY EVENING SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 KT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING. AS A RESULT...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 7.0 C/KM WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS AND TEMPS FALLING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP. IN ADDITION...STRONG LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN RELATIVELY FAST STORM MOTION AND MAY ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THE ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE THROUGH LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO THE INCREASING ASCENT AND INSTABILITY REMAINING IN PLACE. ...SRN ATLANTIC COAST... THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER KEEPS HURRICANE OPHELIA NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE COAST OF SC THROUGH TODAY WITH A SLIGHT NWWD MOVEMENT EXPECTED TONIGHT. THIS COULD BRING A FEW RAINBANDS CLOSE TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS LATE IN THE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES WILL EXCEED 40 KT WITH MUCAPE VALUES REACHING NEAR 2000 J/KG. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ROTATING CELLS AS RAINBANDS NEAR THE COASTAL SECTIONS. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAIN ATTM...IF STORMS CAN MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE COAST...A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. ..BROYLES/TAYLOR.. 09/11/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z |