Sep 13, 2005 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Updated: Tue Sep 13 12:50:11 UTC 2005
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SPC AC 131247 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0747 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005 VALID 131300Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE APN 20 SSW SBN 15 ESE MTO 25 NNW CGI 40 NE HRO 30 N MKO 10 WNW FSI 50 WNW ABI 30 NW BGS 45 NE HOB 40 SE CVS 20 NNW AMA 35 ENE DDC 10 WSW MHK 40 NNW LWD 15 NNE ALO 15 ESE CWA 65 ENE CMX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S CRE 35 SE FAY 25 NNE EWN 30 SE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE ELP 40 NNE CNM 20 NNW TCC 15 W RTN 25 NE CDC 60 SE BAM 45 NNW OWY 50 S 27U 35 SSE LVM CPR 45 WNW LBF 15 WNW BUB 25 NNW RWF 45 E DLH ...CONT... 40 WNW CLE 15 WNW BWG 15 WSW PBF 45 ESE SHV 15 SSE 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE SSI 15 NNE CAE 20 ESE ORF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN AND CNTRL PLNS NE INTO THE MID MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE CAROLINA CST... ...SYNOPSIS... TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE THIS PERIOD. STRONG SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WHICH CROSSED THE NRN PLNS YESTERDAY WILL PHASE WITH A DISTURBANCE NOW DROPPING SE ACROSS MANITOBA TO YIELD A BROAD...PROGRESSIVE TROUGH OVER ONTARIO BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. DEPARTURE OF NRN PLNS IMPULSE WILL ALLOW LOW AMPLITUDE SRN BRANCH JET TO STRENGTHEN AND SPREAD E INTO THE SRN PLNS. FARTHER E...SATELLITE LOOPS SUGGEST THAT PROGRESSION OF CNTRL NOAM TROUGH IS FINALLY SHUNTING UPR OH VLY RIDGE E INTO THE N ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD ENCOURAGE T.S. "OPHELIA" TO TURN MORE N TOWARD THE NC CST. AT THE SURFACE...NRN PART OF FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NRN PLNS TROUGH LIKELY WILL CONTINUE E/SE ACROSS THE UPR GRT LKS/MID MS VLY TODAY...WHILE SRN PART SETTLES SSE INTO THE SRN PLNS. ...CNTRL PLNS TO MID MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS... LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW SRN BRANCH JET BECOMING BETTER ESTABLISHED ATTM OVER THE WRN PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS. DEEP WSWLY SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS AND THE MS VLY THIS PERIOD AS THE SRN JET CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ENEWD. AT THE SAME TIME...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD CONTINUE FROM TX/OK NEWD INTO ERN KS/MO/SE IA AND IL...WHERE SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING SHOULD OCCUR. AS A RESULT...EXPECT AFTERNOON MUCAPE TO RANGE FROM NEAR 2000 J/KG IN SE IA/NRN IL TO NEAR 3000 J/KG IN SE KS AND MO. BAND OF SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TSTMS NOW PRESENT IN ERN KS/NW MO AND SW IA APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE INFLUX IN THE 800-700 MB LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN STREAM JET. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE AND BECOME SURFACE-BASED LATER TODAY WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL HEATING/CONTINUED MOISTURE INFLOW. WITH DEEP WSWLY SHEAR OF 40 KTS ORIENTED AT A CONSIDERABLE ANGLE TO THE BAND OF CONVECTION...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THE ACTIVITY TO FORWARD-PROPAGATE ENE ACROSS REMAINING PORTIONS OF ERN KS/MO AND ERN IA...WHERE EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS MAY YIELD DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT E OF THE EXISTING ACTIVITY. THESE COULD POSE A SIMILAR SEVERE THREAT E/NE INTO IL/SRN WI AND WRN/NRN LWR MI. ...SRN PLNS... SWRN END OF KS CONVECTIVE BAND SHOULD TEND TO BACK-BUILD SWD AND WWD INTO RATHER RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS CAP WEAKENS FROM NE TO SW ACROSS REGION. COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRENGTHENING WSW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM JET...SETUP EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A FEW SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO IN SRN KS/NRN OK. THESE STORMS SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO A LARGE MCS THAT MAY PERSIST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE/DEVELOP SLOWLY S/SE ACROSS OK/AR. ...CSTL CAROLINAS... T.S. "OPHELIA" EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY NW TODAY...BEFORE TURNING MORE N BY TONIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE MOVES E INTO SRN NEW ENG. WIND FIELD SUPPORTIVE OF MINI SUPERCELLS IS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO AFFECT CSTL NC FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO THE SC BORDER ...PER AREA VWPS SHOWING ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WITH SFC TO 1 KM SHEAR AOA 30 KTS. WIND PROFILES SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS AS OPHELIA MOVES CLOSER TO THE CST LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. CESSATION OF LOW LEVEL COOL/DRY ADVECTION HAS ALLOWED RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO ONCE AGAIN OVERSPREAD ERN NC...WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOW 70S. WARM CORE NATURE OF OPHELIA LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT DEGREE OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...EVEN ON FRINGE OF STORM CIRCULATION AND DURING MAX HEATING. BUT AS SYSTEM BEGINS TO TURN MORE NWD LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...AND AS BOUNDARY LAYER AIR OF A MORE TROPICAL ORIGIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD WWD ON N SIDE OF CIRCULATION...POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MINI SUPERCELLS/ISOLATED TORNADOES IN OUTER CONFLUENCE BANDS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR ERN/SRN NC AND PERHAPS FAR NE SC. ..CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 09/13/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z |