SPC AC 132006
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0306 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2005
   
   VALID 132000Z - 141200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW
   ANJ MTW DNV 25 NNW CGI 40 NE HRO 30 N MKO 10 WNW FSI 50 WNW ABI 30
   NW BGS 45 NE HOB 40 SE CVS AMA P28 10 WSW MHK 40 NNW LWD 15 NNE RST
   55 NE EAU 65 ENE CMX.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE ELP 30 S ROW
   TCC 30 WSW CAO 15 SSE ALS 25 S CDC 30 NNE ELY 25 NNW OWY 65 SW 27U
   50 ESE LVM 35 SSW BFF 55 ESE LIC 55 NNW GCK 15 ESE RWF 40 N CMX
   ...CONT... 40 SE OSC 30 WNW IND 20 N OWB 25 E DYR 25 NW GWO 25 NW
   ESF 25 W 7R4.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE CHS 20 W DAN
   15 ESE ORF.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SRN HIGH PLAINS TO
   UPPER MI...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY POSITIVELY
   TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY REGION SWWD ACROSS CA. 
   SEVERAL LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS
   CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...BUT IN
   GENERAL...BROAD PLUME OF SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL EXTEND FROM 4 CORNERS
   TO GREAT LAKES.  SFC COLD FRONT -- MODULATED ACROSS IA BY CONVECTIVE
   OUTFLOWS -- IS ANALYZED FROM LS SWWD ACROSS SERN MN TO FRONTAL-WAVE
   LOW BETWEEN SLN-EMP.  FRONT THEN EXTENDS SWWD ACROSS ERN TX
   PANHANDLE AND OVER E-CENTRAL NM.  EXPECT FRONT TO DECELERATE THROUGH
   REMAINDER PERIOD ACROSS SERN NM AND SOUTH PLAINS OF W TX...AS
   POSTFRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERS IN RESPONSE TO LEE-SIDE
   CYCLONE DEVELOPING NEAR MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL NM.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   INTERSECTS FRONT INVOF E-CENTRAL KS LOW...AND EXTENDS SEWD ACROSS
   SERN KS THEN NEWD OVER WRN MO. DRYLINE -- FROM NEAR PVW SSWWD
   ACROSS EXTREME SERN NM -- SHOULD MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THIS EVENING
   AND MAY RETREAT WWD IN SOME AREAS.
   
   ...MID/UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...
   LARGE MCS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS
   EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NEWD FROM IA ACROSS PORTIONS SERN MN AND
   WI.  FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES IN
   PRE-STORM AIR MASS OVER MS VALLEY AND SRN WI WILL SUPPORT SEVERE
   POTENTIAL THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON. REF SPC WW 781...782...AND
   RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR MORE DETAILED NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE.
   TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH
   REMAINDER AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL/ERN MO...IN WEAKLY CAPPED AND
   INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
   PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER ENVIRONMENT FOR BOTH BUOYANCY AND DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR IN IL...BUT MAY STILL PRODUCE DAMAGING GUSTS AND OCCASIONAL
   HAIL.
   
   ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...
   FARTHER W ACROSS WRN MO...SERN KS AND NRN OK...SUPERCELL POTENTIAL
   IS INCREASING INVOF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND FRONTAL-WAVE LOW.  ALL
   MODES OF SEVERE ARE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING SOME VERY LARGE/DAMAGING
   HAIL.  AIR MASS HAS BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH SFC TEMPS LOW-MID
   90S AND DEW POINTS LOW 70S F...CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES EXCEEDING
   3000 J/KG.  VERTICAL SHEAR AND BOUNDARY LAYER VORTICITY WILL BE
   LOCALLY MAXIMIZED FROM LOW EWD INVOF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. REF SPC
   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2187 AND WWS 783/784 FOR ADDITIONAL NOWCAST
   INFO.  CONVECTION OVER THIS REGION SHOULD BECOME MORE DENSE AND
   INTENSE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...LIKELY BACKBUILDING IN AT LEAST
   BROKEN FORM SWWD ACROSS PORTIONS NRN/WRN OK.
   
   WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE TSTMS ALSO MAY DEVELOP INVOF DECELERATING
   COLD FRONT SWWD INTO SRN TX PANHANDLE...WITH TCU AND NASCENT CB
   ALREADY APPARENT FROM LBB AREA NEWD TOWARD SHAMROCK TX.  DRYLINE SW
   OF LBB SHOULD MARK SWRN BOUND OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. 
   VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THIS REGION INITIALLY IS WEAK BECAUSE OF ONLY
   15-20 KT MIDLEVEL WINDS AND SSWLY-WLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. 
   HOWEVER...SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME THROUGH THIS
   EVENING AS FLOW ALONG AND JUST S OF FRONT BACKS DUE TO ISALLOBARIC
   FORCING FROM NM LEE CYCLOGENESIS.  DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL MAY
   OCCUR...SUPPORTED BY WELL MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS 2000-3000 J/KG
   MLCAPE.
   
   ...COASTAL NC...
   AS TS OPHELIA APCHS COASTLINE AND FAVORABLY ENLARGED LOW LEVEL
   HODOGRAPHS SLOWLY SPREAD NWD ACROSS NC COASTAL PLAIN AND
   SHORELINES...DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW MINI SUPERCELLS AND MARGINAL
   POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG OUTER FRINGES OF
   TS OPHELIA CIRCULATION.  HOWEVER...DIABATICALLY AIDED SFC-BASED
   BUOYANCY HAS PEAKED ACROSS INLAND AREAS...AND CONVERGENCE APPEARS
   TOO WEAK OUTSIDE OF DENSE INNER BAND TO SUPPORT MUCH
   DISCRETE/CELLULAR CONVECTIVE MODE.  THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN VERY
   SMALL PROBABILITIES BUT DROP CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK FOR THIS REGION.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 09/13/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z