Sep 29, 2005 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Updated: Thu Sep 29 10:54:13 UTC 2005
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SPC AC 291051 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0551 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2005 VALID 291300Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE NEL 25 SE BWI 15 W DCA 35 SSW MRB 50 E MGW 25 SSW DUJ 30 NNE BFD 50 WSW ART ...CONT... 55 N BML 20 NW BGR 35 S EPM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW 3B1 45 NE 3B1 45 SSE HUL ...CONT... 65 SSE DRT 35 NNW HDO 30 SE ACT 15 N UOX 65 W LOZ 15 WSW UNI YNG 35 W BUF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S DUG 40 NE TUS 50 SSW INW 15 SSE PGA U28 55 ESE VEL 45 E CAG 10 E DEN 35 N LHX CAO 15 NE CVS 40 WNW HOB 25 NNE GDP 40 SSE ELP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...NEW ENGLAND/MID-ATLANTIC STATES... RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS A SEVERE CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING EWD AT ABOUT 40 KT ACROSS WRN NY AND WRN PA. THE NARROW LINE OF STORMS IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A FOCUSED BAND OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE FINE-LINE OF STORMS IS LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALONG THE AXIS OF A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET. THE VAD WIND PROFILER AT BINGHAMTON NY CURRENTLY SHOWS LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASING WITH 70 KT AT 3 KM AND 50 KT BELOW 1 KM. THIS AMOUNT OF SHEAR COMBINED WITH THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS THE LINE MOVES EWD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. IN ADDITION...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S F NEAR LONG ISLAND WILL RAPIDLY ADVECT NWD INTO ERN NEW ENGLAND RESULTING IN DESTABILIZATION ACROSS SRN ME...VT...NH...MA AND RI SUGGESTING THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL CONTINUE AS THE LINE MOVES INTO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD BECOME ENHANCED AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AHEAD OF THE LINE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH A FEW WIND GUSTS OVER 70 KT POSSIBLE. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON UNTIL THE LINE MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS. ...SRN ROCKIES... AN UPPER-LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EWD TODAY INTO THE SRN ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT VERY ABUNDANT...THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LOW WILL CREATE INSTABILITY FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION SHOW MUCAPE VALUES REMAINING BELOW 500 J/KG WITH 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0 C/KM. ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT EXCEPTIONAL...THE STRONG SHEAR AND COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS ESPECIALLY IF INSTABILITY IS STRONGER THAN FORECAST BY THE MODELS. THE HAIL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY OR MID-EVENING AS INSTABILITY GRADUALLY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 09/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z |