SPC AC 301955
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0255 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2005
   
   VALID 302000Z - 011200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MWL 40
   ENE SJT MAF 30 NE HOB 10 NNW PVW 55 W GAG 30 NE GAG 15 S END 50 SW
   ADM MWL.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W OTH 50 ENE EUG
   40 E DLS 20 NNW GEG 60 NE 63S ...CONT... 50 NNE HVR 60 NE LWT LWT 50
   NW 3HT 45 N 27U 55 N BOI 55 E BNO 50 WSW BNO 40 NNE LMT 25 SW LMT 45
   WNW MHS 35 WSW CEC.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 W MRF 55 NNW MRF
   25 W INK 45 NNW HOB 50 NNE 4CR 30 NW LVS 25 NE RTN 20 SE LAA 15 NNE
   GCK 25 WSW SLN 20 NNE EMP 30 S OJC 35 NE JLN 25 SE FYV 50 NW TXK 45
   NNW TYR 60 SW TYR 25 NNE CLL 40 N HOU 10 WNW LCH 10 SSE BTR 40 NW
   GPT 40 N MOB 30 NW AUO 45 SSE AHN 50 NNW CHS 35 W ILM 70 SE EWN.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE BLI 25 NW SEA
   35 W AST.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER
   PARTS OF WRN TX/ERN TX PNHDL INTO WRN OK...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND PLAN VIEW VWP/PROFILER
   OBSERVATIONS SHOWS UPPER LOW TRANSLATING EWD THROUGH NERN NM INTO
   THE NWRN TX PNHDL/WRN OK PNHDL WITH AXIS OF 45-55 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW
   FROM E-CNTRL/SERN NM THROUGH WRN TX INTO WRN OK.  IN THE
   LOW-LEVELS...LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE LOW OVER SERN CO
   WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PUSHING EWD OUT OF THE CNTRL NM MOUNTAINS.
   A WEAK LEE TROUGH WAS NOTED E OF COLD FRONT...EXTENDING FROM LOW
   PRESSURE SWD THROUGH THE WRN PNHDL AND TX S PLAINS AND INTO THE
   TRANS-PECOS REGION OF SWRN TX.
   
   ...WRN TX INTO WRN OK...
   
   RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS SUGGEST THAT AIR MASS IS DESTABILIZING ACROSS
   WRN TX INTO THE TX PNHDL THIS AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF
   CLOUD/PRECIPITATION BAND CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM NWRN TX INTO WRN
   OK.  STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING ACROSS THE TX
   S PLAINS WHERE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S COUPLED WITH UPPER
   50S DEWPOINTS ARE RESULTING IN SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND A
   WEAKENING CAP /PER MODIFICATION OF 18Z REESE AFB SOUNDING/.  PRIMARY
   FACTORS LIMITING SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ATTM APPEAR TO BE
   EXISTING CAP AND RATHER WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG LEE TROUGH AND ANY
   PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
   
   LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT SUGGESTING THAT
   SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATER
   THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING FROM VICINITY OF AFOREMENTIONED ELEVATED
   CONVECTIVE BAND WWD TOWARD LEE TROUGH. JAYTON TX PROFILER
   OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT WSWLY WINDS ABOVE 5-6 KM AGL CONTINUE TO
   INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AROUND SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW WITH
   RESULTING VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE
   STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS.
   
   STORMS WILL LIKELY MERGE INTO A MCS OVERNIGHT WITH A MARGINAL
   WIND/HAIL THREAT SPREADING EWD INTO PARTS OF OK AND N TX.
   
   ..MEAD.. 09/30/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z