SPC AC 130538
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1238 AM CDT THU OCT 13 2005
   
   VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW SRQ 35 E DAB.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S WAL 30 SSW DOV
   25 NNW TTN 20 NW BDR 35 SE BID.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW FHU 35 NNE TUS
   50 N SAD 40 NNW ONM 35 NW CVS 20 ENE LBB 15 NE ABI 55 WNW AUS 35 NNW
   NIR 60 E CRP.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SWRN U.S./MEXICAN BORDER...
   
   00Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE TREND OF DROPPING UPPER LOW SSWWD
   ACROSS AZ INTO NRN MEXICO.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD NOT EJECT NEWD UNTIL
   LATE IN THE WEEK AS HEIGHTS FALL UPSTREAM ALONG THE WEST COAST. 
   UNTIL THEN...THIS LOW LATITUDE FEATURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH
   RELATIVELY HIGH SFC PRESSURES OVER WEST-SWRN TX WILL PREVENT
   SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION NORTH OF THE U.S. BORDER. 
   HOWEVER...SUSTAINED WARM ADVECTION WILL AID EPISODIC CONVECTIVE
   PROCESSES NORTH OF THE BORDER...MAINLY WITHIN 100MI.  MUCH OF THIS
   ACTIVITY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WITH MEAGER LAPSE RATES...THUS
   THE PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE HAIL APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.
   
   ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC/SRN NEW ENGLAND...
   
   SUSTAINED DEEP ELY FLOW BENEATH SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL
   MAINTAIN FETCH OF MOIST CONVECTION ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE
   NRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITHIN THIS PLUME OF
   MOIST ASCENT SUGGEST INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
   AT BEST.  ISOLATED LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS
   ACTIVITY...HOWEVER GREATER CONCENTRATION WILL BE OBSERVED OFFSHORE.
   
   ...FL...
   
   LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVER SOUTH FL WHERE VERY
   MOIST PROFILES WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN
   THIS AFTERNOON.  DIURNAL INFLUENCES WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN BOTH
   THE EVOLUTION AND DEMISE OF THIS ACTIVITY.
   
   ..DARROW/GUYER.. 10/13/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z