Oct 15, 2005 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Oct 15 00:38:13 UTC 2005
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML, or PDF formats.
Categorical Graphic
20051015 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20051015 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20051015 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20051015 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 150034
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0734 PM CDT FRI OCT 14 2005
   
   VALID 150100Z - 151200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 ESE OSC 30 SW OSC
   10 N MBL 35 NE GRB 15 ENE IMT 25 NNE ESC 30 ESE MQT CMX 90 NW CMX.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 S GBN 25 E GBN 20
   NE PHX 20 NE SOW 70 SSW GNT 25 E TCS 40 ENE ELP 70 WNW MRF.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SWRN U.S...
   
   DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PROCESSES BENEATH UPPER LOW OVER NRN MEXICO WILL
   GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING LATER THIS EVENING. 
   IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG ADVECTION AND ONLY MEAGER INSTABILITY IT
   APPEARS THIS ACTIVITY WILL NOT SPREAD TOO FAR NORTH OF THE BORDER
   BEFORE WEAKENING.
   
   
   ...GREAT LAKES...
   
   STRONG ASCENT WITHIN WARM ADVECTION BELT OF ONTARIO/GREAT LAKES
   TROUGH HAS AIDED DEEP CONVECTION FROM NRN LAKE MI...NEWD INTO
   ONTARIO.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EWD TOWARD
   GEORGIAN BAY BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING WITH ONLY ISOLATED LIGHTNING
   EXPECTED LATE. UPSTREAM...COLD ADVECTION ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND
   STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WITH
   THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
   
   ..DARROW.. 10/15/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z