Oct 21, 2005 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Updated: Fri Oct 21 19:54:11 UTC 2005 Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML, or PDF formats.
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SPC AC 211951 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0251 PM CDT FRI OCT 21 2005 VALID 212000Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW BVE 35 SE MEI 25 NNE GAD 50 SW CKV 40 NNW HOP 25 NW SDF 15 W DAY 30 SE MFD 35 E AOO 35 ESE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE LIC 40 ESE CYS 40 WSW CDR 25 ENE CDR 35 WSW VTN 15 E LBF 50 SE GLD 10 ESE LIC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN APPALACHIANS... LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 1008 MB LOW OVER SCNTRL KY WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD INTO CNTRL AL AND A WARM FRONT ARCING FROM ERN KY TO WRN NC...THEN NEWD ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER. A NARROW AXIS OF MLCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG EXISTS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE LOWER 60S BENEATH MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS HAS MANAGED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS HEATED THE STRONGEST TODAY. TSTMS MAY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACCOMPANYING A TN VLY DISTURBANCE SPREAD ENEWD. VERTICAL SHEAR OF 35-45 KTS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS AND ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS HAIL COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SERN KY COALFIELDS...ERN TN...WRN NC...NERN AL AND NWRN GA. ...SERN GA TO THE ERN SC... SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE INITIATED WITHIN NE-SW ORIENTED CU STREETS ACROSS SERN GA AND ERN SC THIS AFTN. STRONGEST STORMS APPEAR TO BE FAVORING THE SEABREEZE WHERE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXISTS. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG. RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT H7-H5 TEMPERATURES ARE SOMEWHAT WARM AND MAY BE INHIBITING UPDRAFT STRENGTH ASIDE FROM WHERE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FORCING EXISTS. VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40 KTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS AND IF ORGANIZED CLUSTERS/LINES CAN EVOLVE...ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...AND STORMS SHOULD LARGELY FOLLOW THE DIURNAL CYCLE /DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET/. ..RACY.. 10/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z |