Oct 21, 2005 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Oct 21 19:54:11 UTC 2005
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Categorical Graphic
20051021 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20051021 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20051021 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20051021 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 211951
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0251 PM CDT FRI OCT 21 2005
   
   VALID 212000Z - 221200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW BVE 35 SE MEI
   25 NNE GAD 50 SW CKV 40 NNW HOP 25 NW SDF 15 W DAY 30 SE MFD 35 E
   AOO 35 ESE NEL.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE LIC 40 ESE CYS
   40 WSW CDR 25 ENE CDR 35 WSW VTN 15 E LBF 50 SE GLD 10 ESE LIC.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SRN APPALACHIANS...
   LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 1008 MB LOW OVER SCNTRL KY WITH A COLD
   FRONT TRAILING SWWD INTO CNTRL AL AND A WARM FRONT ARCING FROM ERN
   KY TO WRN NC...THEN NEWD ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER.  A NARROW AXIS OF
   MLCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG EXISTS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE
   SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE LOWER 60S BENEATH MODEST MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES.  A BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS HAS MANAGED TO FORM ALONG THE
   FRONT WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS HEATED THE STRONGEST TODAY. 
   TSTMS MAY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
   ACCOMPANYING A TN VLY DISTURBANCE SPREAD ENEWD.  VERTICAL SHEAR OF
   35-45 KTS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS AND ISOLD DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS AND PERHAPS HAIL COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SERN KY
   COALFIELDS...ERN TN...WRN NC...NERN AL AND NWRN GA.
   
   ...SERN GA TO THE ERN SC...
   SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE INITIATED WITHIN NE-SW ORIENTED CU STREETS
   ACROSS SERN GA AND ERN SC THIS AFTN.  STRONGEST STORMS APPEAR TO BE
   FAVORING THE SEABREEZE WHERE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXISTS. 
   BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
   60S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG.  RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
   THAT H7-H5 TEMPERATURES ARE SOMEWHAT WARM AND MAY BE INHIBITING
   UPDRAFT STRENGTH ASIDE FROM WHERE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FORCING EXISTS.
    VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40 KTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS AND
   IF ORGANIZED CLUSTERS/LINES CAN EVOLVE...ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   WOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.  WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS
   NOT ANTICIPATED...AND STORMS SHOULD LARGELY FOLLOW THE DIURNAL CYCLE
   /DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET/.
   
   ..RACY.. 10/21/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z