SPC AC 230023
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0723 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005
   
   VALID 230100Z - 231200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S AQQ 50 ENE SSI
   ...CONT... 40 ESE CRE 50 ESE ORF ...CONT... 50 E SBY ABE MSV 30 W
   AUG 25 ESE EPM.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM P38 40 E MLF 40 WSW
   4HV 55 ENE INW 30 SSW SOW 15 E PHX 20 S IGM 40 NNW IGM P38.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   STRONGEST IMPULSE...EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW REGIME
   WHICH HAS ENCOMPASSED MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S... WILL
   CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEYS
   TONIGHT.  AS THIS OCCURS...SOMEWHAT WEAKER SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK
   WILL LIFT FROM MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND
   ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS.  THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DEEPENING
   SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND TRAILING
   SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY PROGRESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
   REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE
   NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER
   WESTERLIES...AHEAD OF TROPICAL CYCLONE /HURRICANE WILMA/ WHICH IS
   SLOWLY BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
   
   IN THE WEST...WHILE RIDGING REMAINS STRONG ACROSS THE NORTHERN
   INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...LITTLE IF ANY EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF WEAK 
   SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS ARIZONA.
   
   ...MID/NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...
   AS OF EARLY EVENING...STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING HAS GENERALLY BEEN
   CONFINED TO EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET...NORTH/WEST OF SURFACE FRONTAL
   ZONE ALONG THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
   COASTS.  HOWEVER...AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
   MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...INCREASE IN PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OFFSHORE.  SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD
   BECOME QUITE STRONG IN WARM SECTOR OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW...BUT
   THIS SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN SOUTH/EAST OF CAP COD AND ADJACENT
   COASTAL WATERS.
   
   ...FLORIDA...
   SURFACE FRONT IS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO/THROUGH
   NORTHERN FLORIDA.  PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING IN WEAK
   PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA...AND MAY BE
   SLOW TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. CONVECTION COULD STILL DEVELOP ALONG
   THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PENINSULA LATER THIS
   EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS/STORMS REMAINING ISOLATED IN
   TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA.
   
   ...SOUTHERN PLATEAU...
   WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE VICINITY OF
   MID-LEVEL COLD POOL/CIRCULATION CENTER OF CLOSED LOW.  FORCING WITH
   THIS FEATURE MAY MAINTAIN CONVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT
   THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH AFTER DARK WITH LOSS OF SURFACE
   HEATING.
   
   ..KERR.. 10/23/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z