SPC AC 231624
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1124 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005
   
   VALID 231630Z - 241200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W
   PIE 55 ESE DAB.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW CTY 40 SE SSI.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S DMN 45 N SAD 40
   SW PRC 35 ESE IGM 60 NE IGM 55 ESE SGU 20 SSE PGA 20 WSW ABQ 40 NNE
   ROW 45 NE BGS 30 SSE ABI 35 SSW BWD 20 NW HDO 50 NW LRD.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SRN AND CNTRL FL...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THIS PERIOD AS POTENT MID MS
   VLY UPR LOW AMPLIFIES E/SE INTO THE OH VLY DOWNSTREAM FROM
   PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE NRN GRT BASIN.  HURRICANE WILMA APPEARS TO
   BE HEADING NEWD ATTM AND SHOULD ACCELERATE NEWD LATER TODAY/TONIGHT
   AS SYSTEM IS OVERTAKEN BY INCREASING UPR FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
   AMPLIFYING ERN STATES TROUGH.
   
   AT LWR LEVELS...LEAD COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ERN TROUGH EXTENDS
   WSW/ENE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA FROM N OF TPA TO NEAR ORL.  NLY
   SURFACE WINDS N OF BNDRY SUGGEST CONTINUED SLOW SWD DRIFT TODAY. 
   THE FEATURE SHOULD...HOWEVER...BECOME STATIONARY BY TONIGHT AS DEEP
   FLOW BACKS AND STRENGTHENS DOWNSTREAM FROM WILMA.
   
   ...S FL...
   LEAD CONFLUENCE BAND ASSOCIATED WITH WILMA SHOULD REACH THE WRN KEYS
   BY MID AFTERNOON...AND SW FL BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS
   EVENING.  COINCIDENT INCREASE IN LOW-LVL SHEAR STRENGTH/ HODOGRAPH
   CURVATURE...COUPLED WITH RICH MOISTURE INFLOW /DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR
   70S/...WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE
   TORNADOES.  THIS THREAT SHOULD FURTHER INCREASE AND SPREAD E ACROSS
   THE SRN PART OF THE PENINSULA TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY AS WILMA
   ACCELERATES NEWD.
   
   ...CNTRL FL...
   DESPITE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...AFOREMENTIONED FRONT OVER
   CNTRL FL MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER
   TODAY AS HEATING BOOSTS MLCAPE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG.  BOTH LOW AND
   DEEP SHEAR ALONG BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN MODEST UNTIL THIS EVENING
   ...WHEN FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS REGION. IN ADDITION...
   BOUNDARY ORIENTATION IS SUCH THAT ANY STORMS THAT FORM LIKELY WILL
   MOVE FROM WARM TO COOL SIDE FAIRLY RAPIDLY.  THUS...ACTIVITY SHOULD
   REMAIN LARGELY NON-SEVERE TODAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH PWS /2+ INCHES/ MAY
   YIELD A WET MICROBURST OR TWO. BUT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND
   ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL INCREASE ALONG BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND MONDAY
   AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR STRENGTHENS IN CONJUNCTION WITH ARRIVAL OF
   STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH WILMA.  INTERACTIONS CONDUCIVE TO
   LOW LVL STORM ROTATION MAY ALSO OCCUR BETWEEN THE BOUNDARY AND
   WILMA/S OUTER CONFLUENCE BANDS.
   
   ...SWRN U.S. INTO S CNTRL TX...
   WEAK UPR LOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE SRN GRT
   BASIN THIS PERIOD...MAINTAINING A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DIURNALLY
   ENHANCED TSTMS IN NRN AZ.
   
   FARTHER E...SLIGHTLY ELEVATED MOIST LAYER OVER SW AND S CNTRL TX
   WILL BE LIFTED BY /1/ SHALLOW COLD FRONT SURGING SSW ACROSS REGION
   AND /2/ WEAK DISTURBANCES INTO SRN STREAM.  THIS MAY RESULT IN 
   ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE MTNS OF SW TX AND PERHAPS SRN NM LATER TODAY
   THROUGH TONIGHT.
   
   OVER S CNTRL TX...EXPECT BULK OF STORMS NOW PRESENT E OF THE BIG
   BEND WILL SETTLE S OF THE RIO GRANDE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  DEGREE
   OF ELEVATED CAPE /AOB 500 J PER KG/ SHOULD REMAIN INSUFFICIENT TO
   POSE A THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL.
   
   ..CORFIDI/GUYER.. 10/23/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z