Oct 24, 2005 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Updated: Mon Oct 24 18:19:23 UTC 2005 Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML, or PDF formats.
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SPC AC 241545 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1045 AM CDT MON OCT 24 2005 VALID 241630Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE PBI 20 W VRB 40 NW DAB 40 E JAX ...CONT... 35 SE CRE 15 NE EWN 55 E ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW U31 25 N DRA 30 NNE LAS 25 ESE LAS 35 N EED 45 W EED 30 ESE BFL 25 WNW FAT 30 ESE SAC 65 W RNO 20 N RNO 10 NNE NFL 50 SW U31. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THIS PERIOD. HRCN WILMA WILL ACCELERATE NEWD TODAY...AHEAD OF DEEP TROUGH CROSSING THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. IN THE WEST...UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL PROGRESS E TO THE HI PLNS AS POTENT GULF OF AK TROUGH DEEPENS SE ACROSS THE E PACIFIC. THE LATTER SYSTEM SHOULD DRIVE UPR LOW NOW OFF THE CA CST E INTO THE CA DESERTS. ...FL... FRONT THAT STALLED OVER CNTRL FL YESTERDAY WILL ACCELERATE SE ACROSS SRN/ERN FL THIS AFTERNOON AS WILMA CONTINUES NE AWAY FROM THE E FL CST. WARM AIR ALOFT...FALLING THETA-E VALUES AT THE SURFACE AND VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SERVE TO BOTH LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND ANY TENDENCY FOR LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION. ...CA/WRN NV... LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/UPR DIVERGENCE WILL INCREASE OVER THE CNTRL/SRN SIERRA REGION LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS UPR LOW NOW OFF THE CA CST CONTINUES EWD. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH...ALONG WITH DYNAMIC LIFT...SHOULD YIELD WEAK INSTABILITY /MUCAPE TO 500 J PER KG/ AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN TOO LIMITED TO POSE A THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL. ..CORFIDI/GUYER.. 10/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z |