Oct 24, 2005 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Oct 24 18:19:23 UTC 2005
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML, or PDF formats.
Categorical Graphic
20051024 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20051024 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20051024 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20051024 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 241545
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1045 AM CDT MON OCT 24 2005
   
   VALID 241630Z - 251200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE PBI 20 W VRB
   40 NW DAB 40 E JAX ...CONT... 35 SE CRE 15 NE EWN 55 E ECG.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW U31 25 N DRA 30
   NNE LAS 25 ESE LAS 35 N EED 45 W EED 30 ESE BFL 25 WNW FAT 30 ESE
   SAC 65 W RNO 20 N RNO 10 NNE NFL 50 SW U31.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THIS PERIOD.  HRCN WILMA WILL
   ACCELERATE NEWD TODAY...AHEAD OF DEEP TROUGH CROSSING THE CNTRL
   APPALACHIANS.  IN THE WEST...UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL PROGRESS E TO THE
   HI PLNS AS POTENT GULF OF AK TROUGH DEEPENS SE ACROSS THE E PACIFIC.
   THE LATTER SYSTEM SHOULD DRIVE UPR LOW NOW OFF THE CA CST E INTO THE
   CA DESERTS.
   
   ...FL...
   FRONT THAT STALLED OVER CNTRL FL YESTERDAY WILL ACCELERATE SE ACROSS
   SRN/ERN FL THIS AFTERNOON AS WILMA CONTINUES NE AWAY FROM THE E FL
   CST.  WARM AIR ALOFT...FALLING THETA-E VALUES AT THE SURFACE AND
   VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SERVE TO BOTH LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR
   ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND ANY TENDENCY FOR LOW LEVEL STORM
   ROTATION.
   
   ...CA/WRN NV...
   LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/UPR DIVERGENCE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
   CNTRL/SRN SIERRA REGION LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS UPR LOW NOW OFF THE
   CA CST CONTINUES EWD.  STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
   ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH...ALONG WITH DYNAMIC LIFT...SHOULD YIELD WEAK
   INSTABILITY /MUCAPE TO 500 J PER KG/ AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE
   HIGHER TERRAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  INSTABILITY SHOULD
   REMAIN TOO LIMITED TO POSE A THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL.
   
   ..CORFIDI/GUYER.. 10/24/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z