Oct 27, 2005 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Oct 27 16:02:16 UTC 2005
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML, or PDF formats.
Categorical Graphic
20051027 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20051027 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20051027 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20051027 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 271559
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1059 AM CDT THU OCT 27 2005
   
   VALID 271630Z - 281200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW BLI 30 SSE OLM
   20 NW SLE 45 SW ONP.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE 6R6 30 ESE FST
   40 E HOB 35 WSW LBB 25 E LBB 70 NNW ABI 45 NNE ABI 30 W SEP 55 NW
   AUS 40 NNW NIR 35 SE PSX.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SOUTH TEXAS...
   MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WCENTRAL TX SUPPORTS A DIMINISHING AREA OF
   ELEVATED CONVECTION AS SYSTEM MOVES EWD ACROSS A PROGRESSIVELY MORE
   HOSTILE/STABLE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.
   
   FURTHER S STALLED E/W FRONTAL ZONE VICINITY CRP WILL PROVIDE LIFT
   ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE FRONT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
   STRONG...POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS.  E/SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW S OF
   FRONT RESULTING IN INCREASING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.  CIN GENERALLY
   DISSIPATES THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES S OF FRONT RISE TO MID 80S
   ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS TO NEAR 70F.  MLCAPES UPWARDS TO 1500 J/KG
   COUPLED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-35KT SUPPORT PRIMARILY
   MULTI-CELLULAR STORM MODE. WHILE WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW AND NOT
   PARTICULARLY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PREVAIL...THERE IS THE
   POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS IN AREA OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY.
   
   
   PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
   BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT
   CAN DEVELOP.
   
   ..HALES/JEWELL.. 10/27/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z