Oct 27, 2005 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Updated: Thu Oct 27 16:02:16 UTC 2005 Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML, or PDF formats.
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SPC AC 271559 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1059 AM CDT THU OCT 27 2005 VALID 271630Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW BLI 30 SSE OLM 20 NW SLE 45 SW ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE 6R6 30 ESE FST 40 E HOB 35 WSW LBB 25 E LBB 70 NNW ABI 45 NNE ABI 30 W SEP 55 NW AUS 40 NNW NIR 35 SE PSX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SOUTH TEXAS... MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WCENTRAL TX SUPPORTS A DIMINISHING AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION AS SYSTEM MOVES EWD ACROSS A PROGRESSIVELY MORE HOSTILE/STABLE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. FURTHER S STALLED E/W FRONTAL ZONE VICINITY CRP WILL PROVIDE LIFT ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE FRONT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG...POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. E/SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW S OF FRONT RESULTING IN INCREASING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. CIN GENERALLY DISSIPATES THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES S OF FRONT RISE TO MID 80S ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS TO NEAR 70F. MLCAPES UPWARDS TO 1500 J/KG COUPLED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-35KT SUPPORT PRIMARILY MULTI-CELLULAR STORM MODE. WHILE WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW AND NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PREVAIL...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS IN AREA OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY. PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT CAN DEVELOP. ..HALES/JEWELL.. 10/27/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z |