Oct 29, 2005 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Oct 29 19:36:13 UTC 2005
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML, or PDF formats.
Categorical Graphic
20051029 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20051029 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20051029 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20051029 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 291932
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0232 PM CDT SAT OCT 29 2005
   
   VALID 292000Z - 301200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW BLI 35 NNE PDX
   40 NNW OTH.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW ELP 65 NNW GUP
   30 SW BCE 15 SE ELY 45 NNE ELY 15 NE DPG 15 WNW BPI JAC 20 SSE WEY
   10 W BZN 45 SSE GTF 25 W GDV 30 ENE 2WX 50 ENE CDR 15 ESE VTN 35 NNE
   HON 30 SSW AXN 10 NE MSP 45 E MCW 15 S DSM 60 NW SGF 15 ENE TUL 10
   SE CHK 30 NNE BWD 25 WNW DRT.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   STRONG WESTERLIES ACROSS ERN PAC NOW EXTENDING INTO WRN U.S. AS A
   COUPLE OF FAIRLY WEAK S/WVS NOTED ON W/V IMAGERY ARE PROVIDING
   SUPPORT FOR GENERALLY NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
   
   
   LEAD IMPULSE MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN HI PLAINS IS AIDING AREA OF
   ELEVATED STORMS SRN TX PANHANDLE CURRENTLY IN THE AREA OF LOW LEVEL
   MOISTURE RETURN.  
   
   UPSTREAM S/WV WITH WEAK VORT MAX MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN UT INTO SRN
   WY/NWRN CO WILL AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
   ROCKIES WHERE AIR MASS IS ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE.
   
   COLD FRONT FROM ERN DAKOTAS SWWD INTO NWRN KS AND THEN WWD ACROSS E
   CENTRAL CO. SURFACE LEE TROUGH THEN EXTENDS SWD FROM COLD FRONT
   KS/CO BORDER INTO NWRN NM.  
   
   30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE LOW LEVEL
   MOISTURE TO E OF FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH.  WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY NEAR
   50F AND AFTERNOON TEMPS LOW 70S...MLCAPES ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN
   1000 J/KG.  HOWEVER WITH THE CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARIES COUPLED
   WITH RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES AROUND 8C/KM A FEW SURFACE BASED
   STORMS ARE LIKELY AFTER 21Z.  GIVEN THE LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
   AND ONLY ABOUT 30KT OF SHEAR...ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED
   TO ISOLATED HAIL EVENTS.
   
   ..HALES.. 10/29/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z