Nov 4, 2005 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Nov 4 16:30:13 UTC 2005
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML, or PDF formats.
Categorical Graphic
20051104 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20051104 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20051104 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20051104 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 041627
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1027 AM CST FRI NOV 04 2005
   
   VALID 041630Z - 051200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE BLI 45 SSE SEA
   25 SW PDX 10 ENE ONP 55 WSW ONP.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...PAC NW COAST...
   CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW
   APPROACHING THE WA COAST.  AS ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH/-30C MID
   LEVEL COLD POCKET SPREAD EWD INTO THE PAC NW...SHALLOW LAYER OF
   INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO COASTAL SECTIONS
   WHERE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN PREVALENT.
   
   ...MID WEST...
   AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE DRY WITHIN BROAD SWLY FLOW EVIDENT OVER THE
   MIDDLE PORTION OF THE U.S. THIS MORNING WITH PW/S AOB 0.75 INCHES
   NORTH OF THE GULF COAST.  THOUGH DEEP ASCENT WILL INCREASE INTO THE
   SRN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF EJECTING
   UPPER LEVEL JET...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE WEAK. 
   THEREFORE...THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE THAN VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
   APPEARS TOO LOW THROUGH 12Z TO WARRANT MAINTAINING A GENERAL THUNDER
   AREA.
   
   ..EVANS/JEWELL.. 11/04/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z