SPC AC 081623
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1023 AM CST TUE NOV 08 2005
   
   VALID 081630Z - 091200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N
   CLE 50 ENE LUK 15 NW BMG 35 E UIN 20 ENE CID 35 WNW LNR 30 ENE VOK
   15 WNW MTW 25 E RQB 20 NNW MTC 15 N CLE.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 WNW VBG 30 NNE
   PRB 25 ESE FAT 25 E BIH 60 ESE TPH 30 NNE LAS 65 WNW EED 35 NE RAL
   55 S LGB.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W BUF 30 E BFD 30
   WNW BWI 25 S RIC 20 SW AVC 20 NE HSS CSV 30 ESE FAM 35 WNW COU 35
   NNE DSM 35 E MKT 35 SSE ASX 30 NNE ANJ.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S LRD 25 ENE COT
   30 E AUS 40 SSE CRS 35 N LFK 45 E GLS.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY ACROSS
   CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...
   
   ...MID/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY ACROSS CENTRAL GREAT LAKES/OH RIVER
   VALLEY...
   RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER
   MID WEST INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY...AHEAD OF SIGNIFICANT
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
   AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.  IN RESPONSE TO WEAK
   IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE OH RIVER VALLEY TODAY...H85 WINDS OF 20-30
   KT WILL SUSTAIN LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME ATOP A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY
   LAYER FROM ERN IND/OH INTO WRN PA/WV.  H85 WINDS WILL INCREASE
   DRAMATICALLY LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE MID/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY
   IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING TROUGH WITH 50+ KT SWLY LLJ NOSING INTO
   SRN LAKE MI REGION BY 06Z.  ALOFT...CURRENT MODEST WNWLY MID/UPPER
   LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG DURING LATTER HALF OF PERIOD AS
   130+ KT H25 SPEED MAX /80+ KT AT H5/ SHIFTS ACROSS THE NRN MS RIVER
   VALLEY.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP/DEEPEN EWD ACROSS NRN
   MN...WITH STRONG COLD FRONT SHIFTING QUICKLY EWD INTO THE CENTRAL
   GREAT LAKES AND SEWD INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT.  TRIPLE
   POINT BETWEEN DEVELOPING SURFACE WARM FRONT AND THIS COLD FRONT
   SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN WI AND INTO LOWER MI AFTER 06Z.  IN
   ADDITION...UNSEASONABLY MOIST LOW LEVELS EXTEND FROM THE WRN GULF OF
   MEXICO INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY WITH LOWER 60F SURFACE DEW
   POINTS CURRENTLY INTO CENTRAL MO.  
   
   MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM ILX AND ILN INDICATE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   ARE STEEP / 6.7 C/KM FROM H85-H5/ ATOP A MOIST BUT COOLER BOUNDARY
   LAYER. THIS SUGGESTS LOW LEVEL WAA MAY SUSTAIN A FEW ELEVATED
   THUNDERSTORMS TODAY OVER THIS REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
   LARGE HAIL.  LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME
   BETTER DEFINED ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IND.  THOUGH LARGE SCALE ASCENT
   WILL BE WEAK...SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND WEAKENING CINH WITHIN
   UNSEASONABLY WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER MAY SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED
   DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS REGION.  SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SHEAR WILL BE
   MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS.
   
   PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EVOLVE AFTER DARK AND BE ASSOCIATED
   WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM NOW OVER THE NRN ROCKIES.  THOUGH MODELS
   SUGGEST BOUNDARY LAYER MAY REMAIN COOL/STABLE...AT LEAST WIDESPREAD
   ELEVATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
   ASCENT BECOME ENHANCED.  THERE REMAINS CONCERN THAT DEGREE OF
   MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT MECHANICAL MIXING/LIFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
   SURFACE COLD FRONT/TRIPLE POINT MAY OVERCOME SHALLOW STABLE BOUNDARY
   LAYER. SIGNIFICANT SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 0-1 KM AND LOW LCLS WOULD
   SUPPORT AT LEAST A THREAT OF TORNADOES/DAMAGING WINDS LATE TONIGHT
   INTO SRN WI/NRN IL/NRN IND AND PORTIONS OF LOWER MI AHEAD OF THIS
   SYSTEM SHOULD SURFACE PARCELS BE TAPPED.
   
   ..EVANS/JEWELL.. 11/08/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z