SPC AC 091259
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0659 AM CST WED NOV 09 2005
   
   VALID 091300Z - 101200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 E
   ORF 25 NE SOP 40 NE AVL 40 SSE LOZ 30 E LEX 35 WNW UNI 50 N CLE
   ...CONT... 45 N ROC 15 NNE ELM 35 NNE CXY 20 ENE ABE 20 SSE POU 25
   SE ACK.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE ILM 30 NE FLO
   25 NNE BHM 30 W HEZ GGG 35 NW HOT 25 SW PAH 45 NNE EVV 20 NNE IND 20
   SW AZO 35 WNW MBS 55 N APN ...CONT... 30 NW EFK BML AUG 20 S EPM.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW SFO 25 NNE SAC
   35 W BIH 40 WNW EDW 25 S SBA.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPR OH
   VLY/CNTRL APLCNS/MID ATLANTIC...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   DEEP BUT PROGRESSIVE TROUGH NOW OVER MN/WRN ONTARIO EXPECTED TO
   REACH LK HURON THIS EVENING BEFORE CONTINUING E INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT.
    THE SHORT RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT SYSTEM WILL AMPLIFY
   LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY OVER THE UPR OH VLY/CNTRL APPALACHIANS
   IN RESPONSE TO EWD MOVEMENT OF JET STREAK NOW OVER WY.
   
   SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH UPR TROUGH SHOULD TRACK FROM N OF LK
   SUPERIOR TO S OF JAMES BAY EARLY TONIGHT AS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
   SWEEPS E TO THE WRN SLOPES OF THE NRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS.  FARTHER
   E...850 MB WARM FRONT SHOULD REACH THE HUDSON VLY DURING THE SAME
   PERIOD.  HOWEVER...NEWD MOTION OF SURFACE WARM FRONT LIKELY WILL BE
   RETARDED E OF THE MOUNTAINS IN PA.
   
   ...UPR OH VLY/CNTRL APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC...
   BAND OF PRE-WARM FRONTAL TSTMS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND MOVE E ACROSS
   THE CNTRL/NRN APPALACHIANS TODAY...REACHING WRN NEW ENG BY EVENING. 
   WHILE SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER/MORE ISOLATED
   STORMS...INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN TOO LIMITED TO SUPPORT A
   SUSTAINED SEVERE THREAT.
   
   A GREATER SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG COLD FRONT
   ...OR ON CONFLUENCE BANDS AHEAD OF IT...IN OH/WRN PA AND WV.  THIS
   REGION WILL DESTABILIZE IN WAKE OF MORNING STORMS AND PASSAGE OF 700
   MB THERMAL RIDGE.  THE STRONGEST LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH ONTARIO TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN N OF THE AREA.  BUT
   COMBINATION OF WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND CONFLUENCE/FRONTAL UPLIFT
   MAY YIELD SURFACE-BASED STORMS AS MLCAPE RISES TO 500-750 J/KG. 
   MORE ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY FORM SWD ALONG FRONT/CONFLUENCE
   BANDS INTO THE TN VLY.
   
   ASSUMING SUSTAINED STORMS DO FORM...FAST...NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY
   FLOW /WITH 500 MB SPEEDS AROUND 60 KTS/ WILL PROVIDE AMPLE SHEAR FOR
   SUPERCELLS WITH HIGH WIND...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS A
   COUPLE TORNADOES.  THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SPREAD E/SE ACROSS THE
   CNTRL APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING/EARLY THURSDAY.  NEW DEVELOPMENT
   AND/OR SOME STRENGTHENING MAY OCCUR OVER THE DELMARVA REGION SWD
   INTO NC AS AFOREMENTIONED AMPLIFICATION OF UPR TROUGH ENHANCES
   ASCENT.
   
   ..CORFIDI/BRIGHT.. 11/09/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z