Nov 11, 2005 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Nov 11 16:28:11 UTC 2005
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML, or PDF formats.
Categorical Graphic
20051111 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20051111 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20051111 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20051111 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 111625
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1025 AM CST FRI NOV 11 2005
   
   VALID 111630Z - 121200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE BLI 40 ENE AST
   20 SSW AST.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE BLI 40 ENE AST
   50 SW AST.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW MRF 35 ESE HOB
   35 WNW PVW 15 SSE TCC 10 ESE 4CR 35 NE SAD 10 S PHX 65 WSW PRC 50
   SSW LAS 30 N DRA 60 SW ELY 25 E ENV 30 NW RKS 35 ENE RWL 20 S TOR 10
   SSE EAR 20 SW BIE 20 SSW TOP 40 SE OKC 40 NW SEP 30 E JCT 20 SSW SAT
   10 N VCT 40 SSE LBX.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SOUTHWEST STATES...
   LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES
   TODAY...WHILE STRONG TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWEST.  ISOLATED
   INTENSE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL AZ...ALONG LEADING EDGE
   OF STRONGER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH.  THESE STORMS MAY
   PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY AS THEY SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST CO AND
   NORTHWEST NM.  COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND POCKETS OF DAYTIME
   HEATING WILL ENHANCE THE RISK OF HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. 
   HOWEVER...LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE AN ORGANIZED
   SEVERE THREAT.
   
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT FROM WEST TX
   INTO KS AS STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS DRAW MOISTURE
   NORTHWARD.  NO SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
   
   ..HART/CROSBIE.. 11/11/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z