SPC AC 200547
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1147 PM CST SAT NOV 19 2005
   
   VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S 7R4 20 ESE BTR
   25 SSE PIB 40 SW DHN 15 SSE MGR 30 SE VDI 30 W CHS 55 S CRE.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE 00Z NAM/GFS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
   SPEED OF POSITIVELY TILTED CENTRAL U.S. MID LEVEL TROUGH TODAY AS IT
   MOVES SWD TOWARD THE ARKLATEX AND THEN BECOMES NEUTRALLY TILTED
   TONIGHT...REACHING THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY.  THE GFS
   REMAINS A LITTLE FASTER/DEEPER WHICH AFFECTS THE PLACEMENT OF THE
   ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW INTO SRN GA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
   PERIOD.  GIVEN THE GFS HAS CONTINUED TO TREND SLOWER WITH EACH
   RUN...THIS CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK IS CLOSER TO THE NAM WHICH TAKES THE
   DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW INTO THE NERN GULF OFF THE FL COAST BY 12Z
   MONDAY.  THE COMBINATION OF CENTRAL GULF CYCLOGENESIS AND WEAK
   HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SERN U.S./FL WILL SUPPORT THE NWD MOVEMENT
   OF A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA TODAY.
   
   ...COASTAL REGIONS OF CENTRAL GULF TO SE U.S./FL...
   GREATEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE OVER THE
   GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN REGION OF INCREASING DEEP LAYER ASCENT WITH
   THE APPROACH OF THE CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH...AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z
   AS SURFACE CONVERGENCE STRENGTHENS.  A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG
   THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE AND THE RETREATING WARM FRONT...BUT
   GENERALLY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND WEAK INSTABILITY IS
   EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE.  ADDITIONAL STORMS
   WILL ALSO BE LIKELY TODAY OFFSHORE OF SC TO ERN FL ALONG THE COASTAL
   BOUNDARY WHERE CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE STRONGER.
   
   THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE TONIGHT ALONG THE WARM FRONT
   MOVING FROM CENTRAL INTO NRN FL AND INLAND ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF
   COAST TO SRN ATLANTIC STATES AS ASCENT INCREASES DOWNSTREAM OF THE
   STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL TROUGH.  STRONGEST ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT IS
   EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE.  HOWEVER...IF THE WARM SECTOR IS ABLE
   TO MOVE INLAND LATE IN THE PERIOD AS FORECAST BY THE GFS...THEN
   THERE WOULD BE AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS TOWARD 12Z
   MONDAY OVER THE ERN FL PANHANDLE INTO NWRN FL. GIVEN MODEL
   UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS OUTCOME...SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL NOT BE
   INTRODUCED.
   
   ..PETERS/CROSBIE.. 11/20/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z