Nov 21, 2005 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Updated: Mon Nov 21 12:56:14 UTC 2005 Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML, or PDF formats.
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SPC AC 211253 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0653 AM CST MON NOV 21 2005 VALID 211300Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WSW CTY 20 NNW GNV 30 NNW SSI 25 NNE SAV 20 SE OGB 20 SSW FAY 15 ENE GSB 50 ESE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE ISP 50 ESE PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW PFN 20 WSW GZH 25 SW SEM 30 ENE ATL 15 SE GSO 10 ESE RIC 35 ESE ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FL PENINSULA AND COASTAL CAROLINAS... STRONG VORT/UPPER LOW LOWER MS VALLEY 12Z WILL RESPOND TO LARGE SCALE TROUGHING UNDERWAY ERN U.S. AND MOVE RAPIDLY EWD TO OFF CAROLINA COAST BY LATE TONIGHT. FRONTAL ZONE JUST OFF CAROLINA COAST AND ACROSS NERN FL INTO ERN GULF OF MEXICO. PRIMARY SURFACE LOW NOW DEVELOPING ALONG FRONT OFFSHORE SRN SC COAST AND WILL DEEPEN NEWD ALLOWING A SMALL WARM SECTOR TO MOVE INTO COASTAL NC THIS AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE DEEPENING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS VEERING TO SWLY ACROSS FL PENINSULA AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER WITH STRONG MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND A MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL MAINTAIN A RISK OF A FEW STORMS BRIEFLY BECOMING SEVERE WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER NE A BETTER CHANCE OF ROTATING STORMS IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG VEERING SHEAR PROFILES VICINITY OF FRONTAL ZONE. AGAIN A MOIST BUT ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WILL LIMIT SEVERE THREAT TO PRIMARILY BRIEF WIND DAMAGE. THERE IS A RISK OF A TORNADO OR TWO...PARTICULARLY COASTAL NC WHERE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE ABLE TO SHIFT INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. ..HALES/CROSBIE.. 11/21/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z |