Nov 22, 2005 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Nov 22 19:52:13 UTC 2005
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML, or PDF formats.
Categorical Graphic
20051122 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20051122 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20051122 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20051122 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 221949
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0149 PM CST TUE NOV 22 2005
   
   VALID 222000Z - 231200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE BID 15 WNW PSM
   60 NNW AUG 60 NW CAR.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THIS PERIOD...FEATURING
   A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS.  THOUGH STABLE CONTINENTAL
   AIRMASS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE COUNTRY PRECLUDING ANY
   THREAT FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION...ELEVATED NEUTRAL TO
   MINIMALLY-UNSTABLE LAYER ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND MAY SUPPORT A
   FEW STRIKES EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER PRECIPITATION AREA. 
   
   ...ERN NEW ENGLAND...
   THREAT FOR A SMALL AMOUNT OF EMBEDDED LIGHTNING WILL REMAIN ACROSS
   ERN NEW ENGLAND AS MAIN SURFACE LOW OVER SERN NEW ENGLAND -- AND
   ASSOCIATED/SMALL-SCALE VORT MAX -- MOVES NWD ACROSS THIS REGION. 
   HAVE NUDGED THUNDER AREA A BIT FURTHER WWD THIS FORECAST ACROSS NRN
   ME...AS SREF OUTPUT SUPPORTIVE OF THIS ADJUSTMENT IS FURTHER
   AUGMENTED BY CURRENT LOCATION OF UPPER VORT MAX AND SURFACE LOW --
   BOTH SLIGHTLY W OF NAM FORECASTS ATTM.
   
   ..GOSS.. 11/22/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
   DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
   IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:
   
      WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
      WUUS01            PTSDY1
      WUUS02            PTSDY2
      WUUS03            PTSDY3
   
   A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
   ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
   WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
   WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z