SPC AC 151946
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0146 PM CST THU DEC 15 2005
   
   VALID 152000Z - 161200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE
   CHS 30 ESE FAY 45 E RZZ 25 NNE ORF 50 E ORF.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW AAF ABY 20 NW
   MCN AHN 40 ESE SPA DAN 45 SSE CHO DCA 35 WNW ILG AVP POU 45 SSW BID.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
   MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS....
   
   ...ERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO FLORIDA...
   AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER RIDGE IS ONGOING NEAR SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL
   AREAS...AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS PIVOTING INTO THE LOWER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AROUND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY CLOSED LOW.  AS THIS OCCURS...SOUTHERN BRANCH IMPULSE
   CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES. 
   THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL
   AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH LINGERING TRAILING
   SHEAR AXIS STILL A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.
   
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEEMS MOST LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF GULF
   COASTAL AREAS...ALONG PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT...NEAR TAMPA BY AROUND
   16/00Z...THEN INTO THE FORT MYERS AREA AND THE KEYS LATER THIS
   EVENING/OVERNIGHT.  THIS IS WHERE MORE MOIST AND WEAK TO MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY ADVECT INLAND PRIOR TO FRONTAL
   PASSAGE...SUPPORTING AT LEAST LOW POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG
   OR SEVERE STORM IN PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. 
   IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...WARMING AT MID-LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO
   PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG SURFACE
   FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS
   AND THE KEYS BY 12Z FRIDAY.
   
   ...SRN/MID ATLANTIC COAST...
   ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...MODIFYING BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE WESTERN
   ATLANTIC HAS SPREAD INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND SURFACE FRONTAL
   ZONE IS BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO MID
   ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.  AS NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH PIVOTS EAST OF
   THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
   TONIGHT...THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUS FOR SURFACE
   CYCLOGENESIS.  MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS WILL BE RELATIVELY
   WEAK...WITH MOST SUBSTANTIAL DEEPENING FROM CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
   INTO EASTERN VIRGINIA LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
   
   GIVEN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL MOISTURE LEVELS RETURNING OFF THE ATLANTIC
   ...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
   AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL
   BOUNDARY-LAYER BASED DESTABILIZATION IN DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR SEEMS
   LOW.  THIS IN TURN APPEARS TO LIMIT...THOUGH IT MAY NOT
   PRECLUDE...SEVERE THREAT IN ENVIRONMENT WITH MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
   SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS.  A NARROW CONVECTIVE LINE COULD DEVELOP ACROSS
   THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE THIS EVENING...BEFORE LIFTING ACROSS THE
   MID ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION WITH A RISK OF WIND DAMAGE...PERHAPS AN
   ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.
   
   ..KERR.. 12/15/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
   DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
   IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:
   
      WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
      WUUS01            PTSDY1
      WUUS02            PTSDY2
      WUUS03            PTSDY3
   
   A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
   ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
   WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
   WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z