Dec 20, 2005 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Dec 20 20:00:16 UTC 2005
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML, or PDF formats.
Categorical Graphic
20051220 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20051220 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20051220 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20051220 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 201957
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0157 PM CST TUE DEC 20 2005
   
   VALID 202000Z - 211200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW ONP 25 WNW EUG
   45 NE 4BK 35 SE MFR 35 E RBL 35 WSW TVL 25 NE MER 40 WSW FAT 90 W
   VBG.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY MEAN TROUGH FROM GREAT
   LAKES TO NRN GULF OF MEXICO...HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE FROM BAJA TO NW
   TERRITORIES...AND UPSTREAM TROUGH FROM ERN GULF OF AK SWD ROUGHLY
   ALONG 130W PAST CA.  SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION -- NOW EVIDENT IN
   MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SE OK AND CENTRAL/E TX -- IS FCST TO
   TURN EWD ACROSS MS DELTA REGION TONIGHT.  ANY ASSOCIATED TSTMS
   SHOULD REMAIN OVER GULF WATERS.  MARGINAL TSTM POTENTIAL WILL
   CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS CA/ORE. OTHERWISE AIR MASS ACROSS CONUS IS
   FCST TO REMAIN TOO STABLE AND/OR DRY FOR THUNDER.
   
   ...CENTRAL CA TO COSTAL ORE...
   CONTINUING/ELONGATED FETCH OF SWLY FLOW IN MID/UPPER LEVELS IS
   EXPECTED AHEAD OF PACIFIC TROUGH.  THIS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN LOW
   LEVEL WAA REGIME IN PLACE...AHEAD OF SFC FRONTAL ZONE THAT HAS MOVED
   INLAND OVER ORE/NWRN CA AND WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY INLAND IN CENTRAL
   CA DURING REMAINDER PERIOD.  STRONGEST LOW LEVEL LIFT AND MOISTURE
   WILL BE INVOF FRONTAL ZONE OVER CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL CA...AS EVIDENT IN
   BROAD MULTILEVEL CLOUD BAND THAT HAS PRODUCED BRIEF/INTERMITTENT
   EPISODES OF CG LIGHTNING MAINLY OFFSHORE.  WEAKLY/CONDITIONALLY
   UNSTABLE LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR
   ADDITIONAL LIGHTNING...WITH TSTM COVERAGE MARGINAL FOR CATEGORICAL
   TSTM OUTLOOK.
   
   BRIEF/ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE FARTHER N ALONG ORE/NWRN CA COAST
   IN POSTFRONTAL AIR MASS...WEAKLY CAPPED WITH MUCAPES GENERALLY UNDER
   200 J/KG.  VIS IMAGERY INDICATES ISOLATED/SHALLOW CB AND OTHER
   ROBUST BUT NON-GLACIATED TOWERS OVER OFFSHORE WATERS.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 12/20/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
   DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
   IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:
   
      WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
      WUUS01            PTSDY1
      WUUS02            PTSDY2
      WUUS03            PTSDY3
   
   A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
   ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
   WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
   WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z