Dec 20, 2005 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Updated: Tue Dec 20 20:00:16 UTC 2005 Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table in HTML, or PDF formats.
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SPC AC 201957 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0157 PM CST TUE DEC 20 2005 VALID 202000Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW ONP 25 WNW EUG 45 NE 4BK 35 SE MFR 35 E RBL 35 WSW TVL 25 NE MER 40 WSW FAT 90 W VBG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY MEAN TROUGH FROM GREAT LAKES TO NRN GULF OF MEXICO...HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE FROM BAJA TO NW TERRITORIES...AND UPSTREAM TROUGH FROM ERN GULF OF AK SWD ROUGHLY ALONG 130W PAST CA. SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SE OK AND CENTRAL/E TX -- IS FCST TO TURN EWD ACROSS MS DELTA REGION TONIGHT. ANY ASSOCIATED TSTMS SHOULD REMAIN OVER GULF WATERS. MARGINAL TSTM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS CA/ORE. OTHERWISE AIR MASS ACROSS CONUS IS FCST TO REMAIN TOO STABLE AND/OR DRY FOR THUNDER. ...CENTRAL CA TO COSTAL ORE... CONTINUING/ELONGATED FETCH OF SWLY FLOW IN MID/UPPER LEVELS IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF PACIFIC TROUGH. THIS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME IN PLACE...AHEAD OF SFC FRONTAL ZONE THAT HAS MOVED INLAND OVER ORE/NWRN CA AND WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY INLAND IN CENTRAL CA DURING REMAINDER PERIOD. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE INVOF FRONTAL ZONE OVER CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL CA...AS EVIDENT IN BROAD MULTILEVEL CLOUD BAND THAT HAS PRODUCED BRIEF/INTERMITTENT EPISODES OF CG LIGHTNING MAINLY OFFSHORE. WEAKLY/CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHTNING...WITH TSTM COVERAGE MARGINAL FOR CATEGORICAL TSTM OUTLOOK. BRIEF/ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE FARTHER N ALONG ORE/NWRN CA COAST IN POSTFRONTAL AIR MASS...WEAKLY CAPPED WITH MUCAPES GENERALLY UNDER 200 J/KG. VIS IMAGERY INDICATES ISOLATED/SHALLOW CB AND OTHER ROBUST BUT NON-GLACIATED TOWERS OVER OFFSHORE WATERS. ..EDWARDS.. 12/20/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z |