SPC AC 271943
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0143 PM CST TUE DEC 27 2005
   
   VALID 272000Z - 281200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW
   7R4 20 NW LFT 10 NNE HEZ 30 SE GLH 25 ENE GWO 30 NE UOX 40 NE TUP 45
   NE CBM 25 WSW TCL 50 N MOB 40 ENE BVE 65 SSE BVE.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E GLS 40 WSW POE
   10 NNE ELD 20 S JBR 25 SW CGI 40 SE MVN 45 SSW BMG 25 WSW SDF 25 NNE
   SEM 55 SW PNS.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SERN
   LA...MS...AND EXTREME WRN AL LATE TONIGHT...
   
   ...LOWER MS VALLEY-LATE TONIGHT...
   LITTLE CHANGE IN EARLIER THINKING REGARDING DEVELOPING SEVERE
   WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. A
   VERY STRONG MID LEVEL IMPULSE WAS DROPPING SEWD ACROSS KS/OK/NRN TX
   LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS INTENSIFYING ACROSS
   SERN KS/SWRN MO IN RESPONSE TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND..IN
   TURN...LOW LEVEL SSWLY FLOW HAS STRENGTHENED TO 30-40KT FROM THE
   NWRN GULF/ERN TX NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. A NARROW AXIS OF
   RICHER MOISTURE WAS DEVELOPING COINCIDENT WITH THE STRONGER LOW
   LEVEL FLOW...FROM THE TX GULF COAST TO NERN MS...WHERE GOES PW
   VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO OVER 0.75 INCHES. THIS MOISTURE FLUX WAS
   FURTHER CONFIRMED BY 18Z LCH SOUNDING WHICH SHOWED A STRONG INCREASE
   IN MEAN MIXING RATIO SINCE 12Z...BENEATH A STOUT INVERSION BASED
   AROUND 850MB.
   
   CONTINUED MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITHIN DEVELOPING WARM
   CONVEYOR BELT AND A STEADY DECREASE IN STATIC STABILITY ASSOCIATED
   WITH STRONG DYNAMIC ASCENT IN THE MID LEVELS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE ACROSS LA/MS LATER TONIGHT.
   ISOLATED...AND MOST LIKELY ELEVATED...CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS
   ANTICIPATED AS THE STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACTS TO ERODE THE LOW LEVEL
   INHIBITION/CAP. LATEST GUIDANCE APPEARS TO SUGGEST THAT THIS
   SCENARIO WILL OCCUR WELL AFTER 06Z. LATEST 18Z NAM INDICATES
   POTENTIAL FOR RAPID TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER SRN MS AND SERN LA BETWEEN
   09-12Z...AND THIS FCST IS CONSISTENT WITH 12Z GFS GUIDANCE.
   
   DESPITE LIMITED TEMPORAL OPPORTUNITY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
   WEATHER GIVEN INITIATION SO LATE IN THE PERIOD...ANY STORMS THAT DO
   OCCUR BEFORE DAYBREAK WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED
   ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION. A FEW HAIL EVENTS ARE
   POSSIBLE WITH A LESSER CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY
   WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   THROUGH 12Z...AND THIS POTENTIAL FURTHER SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE
   SLGT RISK AT THIS TIME.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 12/27/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
   DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
   IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:
   
      WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
      WUUS01            PTSDY1
      WUUS02            PTSDY2
      WUUS03            PTSDY3
   
   A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
   ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
   WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
   WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z