Jan- 4-2005 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jan 4 17:20:41 UTC 2005
Categorical Graphic
20050104 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probablistic Graphic
20050104 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
   SPC AC 041717
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1117 AM CST TUE JAN 04 2005
   
   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW TPL 15 SW ABI
   55 SSE CDS 10 ESE CSM 40 NNE PNC 40 SSW IRK 10 WSW BMI 30 S FDY 25 S
   ZZV 15 WNW 5I3 15 WNW CHA 55 W JAN 25 NNW LFK 40 NW TPL.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...ARKLATEX TO LOWER OH VALLEY...
   
   CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION
   DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD ALLOWING WEAK SFC WAVE TO LIFT
   NEWD ALONG BOUNDARY INTO EXTREME SRN IND.  IT APPEARS SLIGHT
   INTENSIFICATION AND A MORE DEFINED SFC LOW SHOULD EVOLVE WITH TIME
   AS LLJ FOCUSES FROM NRN TN INTO SRN OH.  WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS
   THE WARM SECTOR AND THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE COLD AIRMASS PLUNGING
   SWD INTO TX SUGGEST CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED TO AREAS
   ALONG/NORTH OF BOUNDARY FROM THE RED RIVER REGION...NEWD.  NEAR-SFC
   BASED CONVECTION MAY ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP FROM ERN AR INTO WRN TN BY
   LATE AFTERNOON BUT MARGINAL LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT
   UPDRAFT STRENGTH/ORGANIZATIONAL POTENTIAL.  THE MAIN CONCENTRATION
   OF CONVECTION THIS PERIOD SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE
   MAINTAINING ELEVATED NATURE OF STORMS JUST NORTH OF SFC LOW TRACK.
   
   ..DARROW.. 01/04/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z