SPC AC 100845
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0245 AM CST MON JAN 10 2005
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE GLH 20 WNW PBF
20 E FSM 15 SW JLN 50 SW SZL 30 NW COU 45 NE FWA 45 N CLE 20 NNE ERI
JHW 25 W BFD 35 SW DUJ 25 ESE UNI 25 N CSV 15 SW MSL 20 SW TUP 35
NNE GLH.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW UKI 40 NE SAC
45 NNE TPH 40 WNW CDC 35 SSW PGA 15 W INW 70 SW SOW 40 WSW FHU.
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
CORRECTED TO CHANGE WORDING IN THE LAST SENTENCE
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND DIG SEWD ACROSS THE SWRN
STATES ON DAY 2. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CA...SRN NV
AND WRN AZ. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WEAK
INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY VERY ISOLATED.
ELSEWHERE...BROAD ZONAL FLOW AT THE MID-LEVELS WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CONUS. AS HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS THE MS VALLEY...MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN. STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
JET ACCOMPANIED BY ASCENT DUE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL
FOR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES 35 TO 40 KT AND
STEEP LOWER TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.0 C/KM MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAINLY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.
..BROYLES.. 01/10/2005
...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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