SPC AC 111740
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1140 AM CST TUE JAN 11 2005
   
   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E
   PSX 30 W CLL DAL ADM 45 WSW TUL JLN 15 N TBN SPI DNV BMG OWB TUP 35
   NNE MEI LUL 35 WSW HUM.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CRP VCT AUS
   FTW SPS 10 ENE CDS PVW 25 NNW CNM 20 SW ALM 10 SE ONM LAA RSL OTM
   MTW 25 ENE PLN 65 NE APN ...CONT... 35 NNW PBG BML 20 E PWM
   ...CONT... 10 NNE JFK ELM DUJ BLF CHA BHM MGM DHN 20 ESE AQQ.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
   PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY....
   
   MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN SUGGESTING EVOLUTION OF BROAD DEEP CLOSED LOW
   DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  SYSTEM WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE EAST
   CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES...BUT CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL
   EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CANADA AND THE UNITED STATES.
   
   THIS IS SUPPORTED BY TRENDS IN LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND WILL
   INVOLVE EVENTUAL PHASING OF CLOSED LOWS/SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED
   WITHIN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF POLAR WESTERLIES.  SOUTHERN
   BRANCH SYSTEM HAS FINALLY PROGRESSED INLAND...ACROSS THE NORTH
   CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST...AND WILL RAPIDLY DIG EAST SOUTHEASTWARD
   ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.  MODELS
   SUGGEST UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
   PLAINS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY... BEFORE BEGINNING TO LIFT TOWARD
   THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
   
   WHILE PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN
   CANADA...MODELS DO INDICATE WEAKER CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR WITH
   SOUTHERN BRANCH IMPULSE ALONG LEADING EDGE OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR
   ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS.  FRONT HAS ALREADY NOSED INTO THE
   RED RIVER VALLEY.  WHILE FURTHER ADVANCEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
   AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SLOW...MODELS MAY STILL BE TOO STRONG/DEEP WITH
   SURFACE LOW PROGRESSING EASTWARD OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS.  THIS IS
   CONTRIBUTING TO UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
   AREA WEDNESDAY...BUT EVENTUALLY A WAVE APPEARS LIKELY TO FORM ALONG
   FRONT FROM THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA/ARKLATEX AREA INTO THE OZARKS BY
   EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.  THIS WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN
   MOIST CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
   
   SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY NEAR 60F IN TONGUE FROM THE WESTERN
   GULF INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEY.  THIS SHOULD
   PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH LEADING EDGE OF BETTER MOISTURE
   NOSING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND PARTS OF THE
   NORTHEAST...AROUND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OFF THE
   ATLANTIC COAST.  GIVEN WIDESPREAD FAVORABLE MOISTURE...AT LEAST LOW
   PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER BROAD AREA OF THE
   CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
   
   ...SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS...
   WITH MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH LIKELY LAGGING TO WEST OF COLD FRONT
   THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WARM SECTOR CAPE IS
   EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE MINIMAL.  STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL BE
   CONFINED TO VICINITY OF NARROW PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING
   FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO THE OZARKS...ON WESTERN EDGE
   OF MOIST TONGUE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET.
   
   FURTHER INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY BE
   SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA
   INTO THE OZARKS BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  AS INHIBITION
   WEAKENS...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500
   J/KG IS POSSIBLE.  A FEW SUSTAINED VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS APPEAR LIKELY
   IN ENVIRONMENT WITH MORE THAN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. 
   BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR RISK OF ISOLATED
   TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   AS LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING AND COOLING BEGINS TO
   SPREAD ACROSS FRONTAL ZONE WEDNESDAY EVENING...CONVECTION IS
   EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE.  EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE
   APPEARS LIKELY TO EVOLVE EASTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE MIDDLE AND
   LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  EASTWARD SURGE OF COLD FRONT MAY
   EVENTUALLY TEND TO UNDERCUT STRONGER CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...GIVEN
   STRONG 50+ KT MEAN FLOW REGIME...RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS COULD
   PERSIST WITH SQUALL LINE INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
   
   ..KERR.. 01/11/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z