Jan-21-2005 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jan 21 17:36:23 UTC 2005
Categorical Graphic
20050121 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probablistic Graphic
20050121 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
   SPC AC 211732
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1132 AM CST FRI JAN 21 2005
   
   VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S LCH POE 40 NNE
   MLU 20 N UOX 50 E MKL 45 ESE BWG 35 ESE LEX 30 NE JKL 20 S 5I3 25
   WSW TRI 10 SE AVL 25 WSW CLT SOP 10 SSE RWI 25 NNE ECG ...CONT... 20
   N VRB 65 WSW MIA.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY ON SATURDAY AS IT
   TRACKS ESEWD TO THE ERN SEABOARD BY 12Z SUNDAY...WITH WLY MID-LEVEL
   FLOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES STRENGTHENING TO 50-60 KT. 
   ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDERWAY AT THE
   START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY.  THIS LOW WILL TRACK
   ENEWD TOWARD SRN PA/WV WITH A SECONDARY LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG
   THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  TRAILING COLD
   FRONT WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO SERN STATES
   SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SWD ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL U.S.
   
   UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST WILL RESULT IN ERRATIC MOVEMENT OF THE
   CLOSED LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL BAJA CA.  
   
   
   ...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
   SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE INLAND ALONG
   THE TX/LA COAST.  LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE WRN GULF ARE EXPECTED
   TO BACK TO SLY DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER
   TROUGH...AIDING IN FURTHER MOISTURE ADVECTION. AS THIS TROUGH
   TRACKS TOWARD THE CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS SATURDAY AND THE
   STRONGEST FORCING REMAINS NORTH OF THE GULF COAST STATES...
   LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD VEER ACROSS THIS AREA ADVECTING A NARROW
   MOIST AXIS EWD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  WEAK LAPSE RATES ATOP THE
   MOIST AXIS ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE AVAILABILITY OF STRONGER
   INSTABILITY...WITH SBCAPE VALUES GENERALLY RANGING FROM 200-600
   J/KG.
   
   THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITHIN WAA
   REGIME ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY...WITH THE GREATER
   LIKELIHOOD FOR ELEVATED STORMS BEGINNING AT OR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. 
   ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN
   GULF COAST STATES AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SWD INTO THE WEAK
   INSTABILITY.  ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
   ORGANIZED STORMS GIVEN INCREASING MID-LEVEL WINDS...WEAK
   INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF STRONGER
   STORMS.  UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER WLY WINDS WITH 40-50 KT POSSIBLE
   AT 850 MB SHOULD RESULT IN POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE
   SEVERE LEVELS. HOWEVER...OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WITH THIS
   ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO LIMITED AT THIS TIME FOR GREATER
   SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
   
   ..PETERS.. 01/21/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z