SPC AC 191734
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1134 AM CST SAT MAR 19 2005
   
   VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 4BK 55 WSW RBL 35 NNE
   RBL 30 ESE FAT 35 SW FAT MRY.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE BRO 20 W ALI
   40 W AUS 35 WSW SPS 45 SW GAG 55 N CAO 20 ENE ALS 50 SW CEZ 60 NNE
   IGM 40 WSW DRA 40 W TPH 35 NE LOL 45 NE WMC 15 S LWS 45 NW 3TH 30
   SSW FCA 15 SSE DLN 25 ENE WRL 25 WNW LBF 30 NE HLC 50 SSW JLN 35 NW
   TXK 55 WNW JAN 30 N MGM 35 WSW MCN 35 NNE MGR AQQ.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST IN THE SRN
   STREAM -- OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE CONUS -- THIS PERIOD.  SHORT-WAVE
   TROUGH FORECAST TO BE EXITING TX EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL MOVE EWD
   ACROSS THE SERN U.S. / GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE PERIOD. 
   MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING ACROSS THE SRN
   ROCKIES AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD LEAD TO MID-LEVEL TROUGH
   DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CENTRAL / SRN HIGH PLAINS BY THE END OF THE
   PERIOD.
   
   AT LOW LEVELS...WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS
   TX / THE GULF COAST REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. FLOW SHOULD
   BECOME INCREASINGLY SLY WITH TIME IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
   FALLS AND ASSOCIATED CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.  RESULTING
   LARGE-SCALE WARM ADVECTION SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
   THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH OVERALL INTENSITY / SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
   BE LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY.
   
   ...CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...
   THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING FROM ERN / SERN TX EWD ACROSS THE
   GULF COAST REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.  CLOUDS /
   PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR HEATING /
   DESTABILIZATION...WHICH SHOULD MODULATE STORM INTENSITY ACROSS THE
   REGION.  ADDITIONALLY...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO BE
   PARTICULARLY STRONG ACROSS THIS REGION WITH MID-LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED
   TO REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE.
   
   THEREFORE...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH THE
   PERIOD.  GREATEST THREATS MAY EXIST NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST --
   WHERE HIGHEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT GREATER LOW-LEVEL
   SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A ISOLATED WIND GUST OR A BRIEF TORNADO...AND
   ACROSS E TX WHERE STEEPER LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER
   UPDRAFTS AND THUS MARGINAL HAIL THREAT.
   
   ...SRN KS / OK / N CENTRAL AND NERN TX...
   RELATIVELY MEAGER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO RETURN NWD
   ACROSS THE RED RIVER INTO SRN KS / OK THIS PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD
   LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION DESPITE FAVORABLY-STEEP LAPSE
   RATES ALOFT.  
   
   DAYTIME HEATING / MIXING OF BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN A
   DRYLINE ACROSS WRN KS / WRN OK / WRN N TX...AND ISOLATED /
   RELATIVELY HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION. 
   WITH SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ROTATION...A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY
   PRODUCE HAIL OR LOCALLY STRONG / GUSTY WINDS.  HOWEVER...OVERALL
   AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN
   LOW.  OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE OF STORMS MAY INCREASE AS LOW-LEVEL JET
   AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION INTENSIFIES.  HOWEVER...LIMITED
   INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT ANY HAIL THREAT WITH MAINLY ELEVATED
   STORMS SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
   
   ..GOSS.. 03/19/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z