SPC AC 100553
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1253 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2005
   
   VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE
   GLS ELD 40 ENE SGF SZL STJ FNB OMA DSM BRL MDH MSL TCL 45 N CEW 15 E
   PNS.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E CRP VCT GGG PGO
   MKO BVO MHK 10 N SUX 10 N ATY 35 E JMS 70 W RRT ...CONT... 30 NNE
   ELO GRR ZZV 5I3 LOZ CSV LGC MAI 10 S PFN.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE FCA MSO 10 SSW
   PDT PDX 15 W ONP.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT FROM THE
   LWR MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LWR MISSOURI VALLEY....
   
   MODELS SUGGEST BLOCK DEVEL0PING IN UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NORTH
   AMERICA WILL BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED MONDAY. HIGH CENTER WILL
   CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER EASTERN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY...WHILE
   DEEPENING LOW SETTLES INTO AREAS OFF THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST. 
   EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS CYCLONE WILL SLOW
   CONSIDERABLY...AND SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. 
   
   HOWEVER...POSSIBLY IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER DEEP CLOSED LOW/ASSOCIATED
   JET STREAK DIGGING TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...MODELS CONTINUE TO
   SUGGEST ONE MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE WILL PIVOT AROUND THE
   SOUTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY OF PLAINS CYCLONE.  AS THIS
   OCCURS...CIRCULATION WILL ELONGATE...AND MAY REFORM EASTWARD INTO
   THE OZARKS LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
   
   THOUGH SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL DRYING IS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE RIDGING EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
   ...NARROW TONGUE OF MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE WESTERN GULF IS EXPECTED
   DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  BY MONDAY...MOIST AXIS IS EXPECTED
   TO CURVE THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER
   MISSOURI VALLEY.  AS MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
   DEVELOPING UPPER SYSTEM OVERSPREADS THIS AXIS...ENVIRONMENT IS
   EXPECTED TO BECOME CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE AND SUPPORTIVE OF
   STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR SEVERE
   STORMS APPEARS TO BE THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHERE GREATEST
   INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON...AS 70-80 KT 
   SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET STREAK OVERSPREADS REGION.
   
   ...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
   IT CURRENTLY APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT BAND OF WEAK...OR
   WEAKENING...CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE LOWER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  THIS IS EXPECTED
   IN RESPONSE TO ZONE OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND EVOLVING
   DEFORMATION ZONE...WHICH MAY SHIFT EAST OF THE RIVER BY THE LATE
   AFTERNOON HOURS.  CLEARING IN ITS WAKE...ACROSS WARM SECTOR WITH
   60F+ DEW POINTS...FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL/
   EASTERN ARKANSAS...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING SURFACE-BASED
   DESTABILIZATION.
   
   MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG IS POSSIBLE BEFORE
   APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVERSPREADS REGION.  IF THIS
   OCCURS...VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD ENSUE...WITH SHEAR
   PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH RISK OF HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS
   AND TORNADOES. GIVEN PROGGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT ALONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS...AN ISOLATED STRONG
   TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.  BEST POTENTIAL APPEARS ROUGHLY ALONG AN
   AXIS FROM ALEXANDRIA LA INTO THE GREENVILLE MS AREA.  
   
   DEVELOPMENT INTO FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS PARTS OF
   CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI IS POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING AS UPPER
   TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE RIVER.  FARTHER EAST THOUGH
   ...FORCING/ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL ENCOUNTER DRIER
   ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF STATES.  THIS...IN CONJUNCTION
   WITH WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS...WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING
   SEVERE THREAT LATER MONDAY NIGHT.
   
   ..KERR.. 04/10/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z