May- 1-2005 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook Updated: Sun May 1 16:57:34 UTC 2005
|
|||||
SPC AC 011656 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1156 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2005 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE SBY 40 W ILG 40 SE IPT 35 NNW MSV ALB 30 SW EEN ORH 25 NE BID. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW P07 GDP PRC DRA 45 NE SCK MHS EUG PDX GEG 3TH 3DU 45 NNE BYI 35 S EVW 50 W EGE 50 WSW COS 15 NNE TAD 20 ESE RTN 40 SSW CAO 15 NW AMA LTS SPS MWL 25 SW CLL 30 E PSX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW GNV 35 SE JAX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS ERN CANADA TO THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND REGION...WITH ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS MOST OF THE NATION. ...RIO GRANDE VALLEY/BIG BEND REGION OF TX... A SECONDARY SURGE OF REINFORCING COOLER AIR WAS MOVING SWD THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE/NWRN OK THIS MORNING AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SWRN TX MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BECOME SELY UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND RETURN MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE MEAGER DUE TO RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE...LOW LEVEL VEERING WINDS/ WARM ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT/MOISTENING OF MID LEVELS FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIFT ALSO MAY BE ACCENTUATED BY SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED IN NV...THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WRN TX MONDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT A FEW HAIL EVENTS...WHILE DEEP INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD FAVOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...STILL TO MANY QUESTIONS ABOUT CONVECTIVE INITIATION/EVOLUTION FOR A SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME. ...NJ NWD INTO SRN NY/CT... MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN ROTATING A MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH RAPIDLY EWD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID/NRN ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM UPSTATE NY SWD INTO DELMARVA AT 18Z AND THEN SWEEP EWD TO LONG ISLAND/CT BY 00Z. INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK WITH MUCAPES AOB 300 J/KG...BUT LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING TROUGH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP...STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWER 3KM MAY TRANSPORT STRONGER MID/HIGH LEVEL WINDS TO THE SURFACE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ..IMY.. 05/01/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z |