SPC AC 051659
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1159 AM CDT THU MAY 05 2005
   
   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW
   IML 20 NW AIA 35 NW CDR 15 SE REJ 35 E Y22 40 E ABR 20 E OTG 15 WSW
   FOD 50 ESE OMA 40 ESE LNK 35 SSW HSI MCK 15 NW IML.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S FMY 10 E MLB
   ...CONT... 40 ENE CHS 30 SSE FAY 20 E GSB 35 WNW ECG 10 NE ORF.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE APN 30 S CGX
   20 ENE COU 25 N JLN 45 SSE PNC 30 SE CSM 35 SE CDS 40 NW DRT
   ...CONT... 45 WSW MRF 25 ESE ROW 30 WSW TCC 35 E LVS 25 N SAF 25 ESE
   GUP 25 SSW SOW 45 E PHX 60 WNW PHX 25 WNW EED 35 SE LOL 40 SSW PDT
   40 NNE 4OM ...CONT... 65 NNE ISN 30 S GFK 30 WSW DLH 15 ESE CMX.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SD/NEB INTO
   SRN MN AND WRN IA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO THE W COAST WILL
   TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN/LOWER CO VALLEY DURING THE DAY
   1 PERIOD...AND EVENTUALLY NEWD THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
   NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. IN THE
   LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY REGION OF SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST
   ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...WITH LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATING OVER
   ERN MT FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM
   E-CNTRL WY INTO ERN ND WILL BECOME ORIENTED MORE W-E BY 06/12Z
   BEFORE LIFTING NWD ACROSS SD AS A WARM FRONT. MEANWHILE...INCREASING
   SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS HIGH PLAINS REGION WILL EFFECTIVELY
   SHARPEN LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE FROM WRN NEB SWD ACROSS WRN KS INTO WRN
   TX FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
   
   ...SD/NEB INTO PORTIONS OF MN/IA...
   INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN SLY LLJ
   AXIS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY NWD INTO
   THE NRN PLAINS. MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH
   VERTICAL MIXING SHOULD ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH
   THE 50S S OF WARM FRONT AND E OF SHARPENING LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE. WHEN
   COUPLED WITH DIABATIC HEATING AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY
   AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG
   ACROSS WRN/CNTRL PORTIONS OF SD/NEB.
   
   SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES IN
   CONJUNCTION WITH PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA AND INCREASINGLY STRONG
   MID/HIGH-LEVEL FORCING SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS BY
   MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ALONG WRN/NRN EDGE OF INSTABILITY AXIS. GIVEN
   FAVORABLY VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT AND RESULTING EFFECTIVE BULK
   SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS...ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS
   APPEAR LIKELY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
   SEVERE WEATHER THREATS...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO
   BE POSSIBLE.
   
   ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY FRIDAY
   NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN NEB INTO WRN/CNTRL IA AND SRN MN ALONG
   NOSE OF SWLY 45-55 KT LLJ WHERE MOIST/THERMAL ADVECTIONS WILL BE
   MAXIMIZED. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WITH LARGE
   HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...WRN KS INTO WRN TX...
   BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
   FORECAST PERIOD E OF DRYLINE AND BENEATH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS SRN EXTENT OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT GIVEN
   THAT STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN FOCUSED
   ACROSS SLIGHT RISK AREA. LATEST RUN OF THE NAMKF DOES SUGGEST THAT
   LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DAYTIME HEATING MAY SUFFICIENTLY WEAKEN
   CAP TO INITIATE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
   EVENING. GIVEN INITIATION...MODESTLY STRONG /30-40 KTS/ SWLY
   MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS DRYLINE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
   WILL LARGELY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN/DISSIPATE
   FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF STORM DEVELOPMENT...ONLY LOW
   PROBABILITIES ARE BEING FORECAST ATTM.
   
   ..MEAD.. 05/05/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z